Another reason to be concerned.

I saw this Gulf oil forecast on CNN while channel surfing at the gym this morning durning my morning run. Much like a computer model can forecast the weather, the NOAA (they're like the U.S. version of Environment Canada) have released the results of a computer model and yellow dye simulation that forecasts where all of that oil in the Gulf will end up if it is picked up by the now famous "loop current." The model output is not promising.

This model projects that by late July and into early August that oil slick may impact much of the U.S. Atlantic Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras and dangerously close to Atlantic Canada. Now that yellow mass is still well to the south of our shores although it still has me concerned. Cape Hatteras is well known for strong storm development and tropical storms do occaisionally follow that Gulf Stream track and affect the maritimes. With an active hurricane season expected, this should be very concerning to Canadians.

Imagine the damage a powerful tropical storm or hurricane could inflict on our coast with a storm surge pushing that oil closer to our shores. Scary. Even your average summer storm parked in the right position could pull that oil into Canadian waters. Imagine a low pressure center sitting over Nova Scotia pulling in a strong, southerly wind. The results could be terrible.

So how accurate is this forecast model? Well...the ocean is a lot like our atmosphere. In fact, our atmosphere has been described as "an ocean of air." As someone who works with atmospheric computer models on a daily basis, I can tell you that a 14 or even a 7 day model is very often far from accurate. Let alone one that is predicting what will happen over a two month period so we should be far from panic mode. Either way, this model should be cause for concern and shows us that even here in Canada we are not immune to what has been described as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.

Another Great Camp Day!

Once again...Camp Day was a blast! Early this morning I was invited out to Tim Horton's on Hunter Street in East City by my friend Kim. Through the Canadian Forces, Kim and I have had the chance to work during military training (we both work with local cadet corps) and now we had the chance to work at "Timmy's" together as well. That pic above is of the two 2nd Lieutenants working the drive-thru...I think we turned a few heads with the combat uniforms.

Here's a pic of the whole crew. A bunch of local "celebs" made it out for the cause including Mayor Paul Ayotte (center). Speaking of "celebs" the CHEX crew also took part. Later that day Jaye and I had a chance to serve up a few "double doubles" at the Monaghan Road Tim Horton's location while Tyler and Shannon managed to work the counter at the Lansdowne location. With over 3600 locations donating the proceeds from all coffee sales today, I think the Tim Horton's Children's Camps will be recieving some healthy funding after today. I'm just glad we could be a part of it and THANK YOU for supporting the cause. Check out the video below...

Bring the rain!

Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy that sunshine today because it looks like more rain is on the way for tomorrow. MUCH needed rain that is. In the TV "weather biz" we tend to talk about rain as if it's a bad thing. As if it it is always about to happen at a bad time. Well, it may be "bad timing" for some but we so need the rain. For the month of May we've recieved only 2/3rd's of the rain we normally get after recieving approximately 60% less rainfall in April compared to the monthly average. You also have to account for the lack of snow we recieved this winter (thanks to El Niño) with one of the driest winters on record. Finally you can add to the mix an unseasonably warm stretch of weather to round out the month of May (breaking an all time high record dating back to 1880 on May 26th) which increases evaporation. Add all of these variables up and you get very dry conditions. VERY dry. Dry enough that Otonabee Conservation Authority is urging everyone to reduce water use by 10%.


















Fortunately we recieved some much needed rain from about 1am - 7am this morning and (looking at the latest NAM run above) a healthy amount of rain can be expected starting as early as tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the overnight into Thursday. More rain can also be expected this weekend. Bad timing? Well...with Trent's convocation tomorrow and the Dragon Boat races (which I'm paddling in) set for Saturday, the timing may be bad for many but it's good for the region...especially area farmers. Oh, and as for the Trent U grads tomorrow...that rain could hold off until the evening so the class of 2010 may catch a break. Congrats to the graduating class and let's hope Ma' Nature cooperates for an outdoor ceremony.