The Long Weekend & Earl

We'll start with the Kawarthas and the question everyone is asking me: "are we going to see any rain this weekend?" My answer...yes. I do expect a few showers both Saturday and Sunday (possibly Monday) but don't blame the weatherman. Blame Earl. Looking at the latest North American Model for tomorrow you can see Earl hammering Atlantic Canada and that sets up and big easterly push of wind just ahead of Earl's track. That disturbance either pushes or favours redevelopment of that "low" (that is moving northeast of us now) west of where it should be this time tomorrow. That area of low pressure appears to be "bumped" by Earl in a westerly direction which sets us up for some rain this weekend.
In addition to the instability normally associated with a low pressure centre, we're also likely to see some lake enhanced precipitation...similar to lake effect snow (only with rain). With that "low" now sitting to the northeast and an area of high pressure to the southwest, I expect a west/northwesterly flow of wind that will pull in some moisture leeward of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Now before you get too down on the weekend, I don't expect a washout. Most of that moisture will not make the trip this far east, so a steady rain isn't likely. Expect a few showers dropping 5-10mm of rain (at most) over both days. Some sunny breaks can also be expected...but it will be a very cool weekend across the region.
Now let's talk Earl. Our weekend forecast looks "peachy" compared to parts of Atlantic Canada as Earl continues to push north. The latest Canadian Hurricane Centre track (see above) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Cat 1 Hurricane with wind in excess of 119 km/h Saturday Morning. The storm then impacts P.E.I. before turning north over eastern Quebec and into Labrador.
The National Hurricane Center (U.S.) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Tropical Storm (no longer a hurricane). The NHC's track differs with the storm, after hitting the Bay of Fundy and rolling into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, turning east affecting eastern Labrador and western Newfoundland along the Straight of Belle Isle. Either way, this storm looks pretty bad for much of Atlantic Canada. Graham Hart is in Nova Scotia and will join us by phone on Tuesday for a wrap on Hurricane Earl.

Hey Peterborough...it's been awhile.

Over the last few days both my blog and my Twitter feed have been dominated by one topic...Earl. So I thought I'd bring the focus back to Peterborough and the Kawarthas and give you a breakdown on what is in store for tomorrow. If you're like me, and are not a fan of the heat, I have some good news for you...a cold front is on the way. I expect things to cool down in a big way tomorrow after that front pushes through in the afternoon. The above image is from the ADONIS forecast model and has that front arriving some time between 2-4pm.

By 8pm the cold front will be well to the east of us but there is still alot of instability to the west of the frontal boundary. That wraparound precipitation will likely occur into Saturday (boo) but it's still only Thursday so don't start planning to hang the weatherman just yet. I will touch on Earl quickly here as he does make quite a dramatic appearence in the above image. This model has that cold front still a good distance away from Earl so any hope of that front either weakening (shear) or deflecting Earl in any way is pretty slim.

Back to Peterborough now, here's your 9-2-5 forecast tomorrow. This board really illustrates the cool down we can expect over the next 24 hours. Our daytime high tomorrow will likely occur around 1pm as a southerly push of wind just ahead of that front continues to pump in warm, humid air. The front then "collides" with that muggy air around 2pm which could bring as much as 10-15mm of rain and may even spark up some thunderstorm activity. By 5pm we should start to see some clearing but a light shower is still possible and the temperature will have dropped between 3 to 4 degrees. In short, tomorrow will see a muggy start, a rainy (possibly active) afternoon and a considerably cooler evening.

A Very Looooong Weekend!

With the long weekend approaching things are not looking good for Atlantic Canada. The image above is the latest thermal satellite imagery of Hurricane Earl from the Canadian Hurricane Centre. Earl is continuing to turn north as a powerful category 3 hurricane. While it is still too early for the CHC to start issuing warnings for coastal communities in Canada, the National Hurricane Center has been busy doing just that south of the border for the shores of North Carolina and Virginia north toward Maryland and Delaware.

So where will Earl make landfall? You have to take the above image with a grain of salt as we are still days away but the CHC is very concerned that Earl will make a direct hit with Nova Scotia on Saturday. The above image is a composite of various hurricane models and the “cone of uncertainty” has this cyclone landing anywhere from Maine to eastern Nova Scotia as a category 1 hurricane with winds in excess of 119 km/h. Earl will quickly weaken over land but could still affect P.E.I. as a tropical storm or depression with wind speeds ranging from 50-100km/h before bringing heavy rain and high winds to Labrador and western Newfoundland. Why so powerful? You can thank warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around Nova Scotia. Although the water there is no longer warm enough to favour storm development (cooler than 26.5 degrees), it's still warm enough for this storm to maintain hurricane strength for some time.

When does Earl make landfall? That’s another tricky question to answer at the moment as we’re not 100% sure as to where he’ll land. It all depends on where Earl actually lands but, assuming he does strike Nova Scotia, the NHC expects Earl to make landfall early Saturday morning. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm, I think we can be certain that this could be a very looong weekend for folks living in Atlantic Canada.

The Great "Divide"

As I write this blog (in my lovely air conditioned "Weather Centre") it is 31 degrees feeling like 38 in Peterborough. Hot! It's hard to believe that tomorrow is the first day of September. With September 1st on our doorstep and the Labour Day weekend just days away, I thought I'd show you what's in store for the long weekend. The image above really illustrates the "great divide" across Canada. Now I'm not talking about a political or linguistic divide, but a major contrast in temperatures from east to west. These are current temperatures from around 3pm EST today. Peterborough is more than twice as warm as Regina! There was even frost in Alberta this morning! Well for those of you who are not a fan of 30 plus degree weather...relief is in sight. That cool air is pushing east with the cold front currently slicing through northwestern Ontario. That airmass will warm up a bit before arriving, but I expect temperures to top out in the high teens (maybe 20 degrees) for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will likely be "flirting" with the single digits. Frost? No...but a lot cooler than today's hot and humid weather.

Tropic Thunder!

With the lack of exciting weather in our region I thought I’d bring you up to speed on what’s happening in the tropics. First we’ll start with Danielle. As I write this Danielle is still a category 1 hurricane sending large waves toward Newfoundland. That’s about all she’ll be able to do though as, luckily for folks living in the Maritimes, Danielle never amounted to more than a “fish storm” (a storm that affects only fish…and boats I guess). Earl…well Earl is a different story. Earl is now a category 3 storm grazing by the Lesser Antilles with winds in excess of 200 km/h. Luckily for those living in the Dominican Republic, and even luckier for those living in Haiti (many still in tents), Earl should turn north just before Puerto Rico and is currently dropping a serious amount of rain on residents there. Earl will steer north along the western edge of the “Bermuda High” and intensify to a powerful category 4 storm as it enters the warm Gulf Stream current. Earl will then push north along the east coast of the U.S. and will likely stay offshore until just north of Virginia. This will still mean powerful waves and deadly riptides along the shores from Florida extending to the Carolinas…not good. The current track shows potential landfall from the northern tier of Virginia through to the Maritimes with a possible direct hit on Nova Scotia as a category 1 hurricane by Saturday…also not good. So I’ll be keeping you updated on Earl as the week progresses and I’ve posted his latest track above. Lastly there is another storm developing out in the Atlantic that the NOAA is 90% sure will develop into a tropical storm. It is still way too early for a track on this one but I’ll keep an eye on it. Although warm, things are at least quiet in the Kawarthas. As for the tropics…well, quiet isn’t the first word that comes to mind. The Atlantic hurricane season is really starting to heat up.