We'll start with the Kawarthas and the question everyone is asking me: "are we going to see any rain this weekend?" My answer...yes. I do expect a few showers both Saturday and Sunday (possibly Monday) but don't blame the weatherman. Blame Earl. Looking at the latest North American Model for tomorrow you can see Earl hammering Atlantic Canada and that sets up and big easterly push of wind just ahead of Earl's track. That disturbance either pushes or favours redevelopment of that "low" (that is moving northeast of us now) west of where it should be this time tomorrow. That area of low pressure appears to be "bumped" by Earl in a westerly direction which sets us up for some rain this weekend.
In addition to the instability normally associated with a low pressure centre, we're also likely to see some lake enhanced precipitation...similar to lake effect snow (only with rain). With that "low" now sitting to the northeast and an area of high pressure to the southwest, I expect a west/northwesterly flow of wind that will pull in some moisture leeward of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Now before you get too down on the weekend, I don't expect a washout. Most of that moisture will not make the trip this far east, so a steady rain isn't likely. Expect a few showers dropping 5-10mm of rain (at most) over both days. Some sunny breaks can also be expected...but it will be a very cool weekend across the region.
Now let's talk Earl. Our weekend forecast looks "peachy" compared to parts of Atlantic Canada as Earl continues to push north. The latest Canadian Hurricane Centre track (see above) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Cat 1 Hurricane with wind in excess of 119 km/h Saturday Morning. The storm then impacts P.E.I. before turning north over eastern Quebec and into Labrador.
The National Hurricane Center (U.S.) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Tropical Storm (no longer a hurricane). The NHC's track differs with the storm, after hitting the Bay of Fundy and rolling into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, turning east affecting eastern Labrador and western Newfoundland along the Straight of Belle Isle. Either way, this storm looks pretty bad for much of Atlantic Canada. Graham Hart is in Nova Scotia and will join us by phone on Tuesday for a wrap on Hurricane Earl.
In addition to the instability normally associated with a low pressure centre, we're also likely to see some lake enhanced precipitation...similar to lake effect snow (only with rain). With that "low" now sitting to the northeast and an area of high pressure to the southwest, I expect a west/northwesterly flow of wind that will pull in some moisture leeward of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Now before you get too down on the weekend, I don't expect a washout. Most of that moisture will not make the trip this far east, so a steady rain isn't likely. Expect a few showers dropping 5-10mm of rain (at most) over both days. Some sunny breaks can also be expected...but it will be a very cool weekend across the region.Now let's talk Earl. Our weekend forecast looks "peachy" compared to parts of Atlantic Canada as Earl continues to push north. The latest Canadian Hurricane Centre track (see above) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Cat 1 Hurricane with wind in excess of 119 km/h Saturday Morning. The storm then impacts P.E.I. before turning north over eastern Quebec and into Labrador.The National Hurricane Center (U.S.) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Tropical Storm (no longer a hurricane). The NHC's track differs with the storm, after hitting the Bay of Fundy and rolling into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, turning east affecting eastern Labrador and western Newfoundland along the Straight of Belle Isle. Either way, this storm looks pretty bad for much of Atlantic Canada. Graham Hart is in Nova Scotia and will join us by phone on Tuesday for a wrap on Hurricane Earl. 
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