Friday, April 24, 2009

Rain for Tomorrow? Really?

Well…not entirely. Looking at Environment Canada’s latest forecast I’ll admit that things look a little bleak. There’s a good chance of showers and the possibility of thundershowers…but it’s not all bad. I’ll admit that the Canadian forecast model looks grim but, after looking at the latest GFS run (an American model), tomorrow may be okay for a lot of the day…at least for the morning and early afternoon.

So let’s look at the GFS run to the left. That Bermuda High is kicking in some great warm air from the south. There is your warm up! Although that cold front looks to push in from the northwest late tomorrow and spoil everything. That frontal boundary could spark up some showers as early as tomorrow afternoon with the potential for thundershowers. If the GFS model holds true, we should still see some sunshine into the afternoon as the front looks to arrive late tomorrow into Sunday.

So if your planning on doing some fishing with the kids at the Green Wing derby tomorrow, pack the sunscreen for the morning (although clouds are still possible) but keep your umbrella handy…oh…and Sunday looks to be a wet one.

Finally...as for that rain tonight. Blame that on a weak upper level disturbance. We'll get you all of those details tonight on Newswatch.

See you Monday!

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Well the sunshine is finally here! After 3 days of wet weather, some sunshine was more than welcome today, although we are still below the seasonal average for the daytime high. Not to fear. The warm-up is on our doorstep!

That massive ridge in the jet stream that has allowed for very warm weather over the western half of the country is pushing east and we should be into the low 20’s by tomorrow and even warmer on Saturday. Although it’s not all good news as there is the possibility of a few showers tomorrow. Our CHEX Future Look Model shows no rain (it is only a chance) but some cloudy periods are likely and rain is a possibility. Now on to Saturday…

Check out these possible highs for Saturday:

Peterborough – 24
Bancroft – 25
Haliburton - 25
Cobourg – 22
Lindsay - 24
Oshawa – 25

With these highs we should see a mix of sun and cloud and there is a chance for some showers but it is only a very slight chance. Sunday, however, is a different story. After looking at the latest NAM run, we could see some rain for Sunday. I’ll have more details on that tonight on Newswatch and on also tomorrow’s blog.

But hey…today is a great day. Not only are we seeing some sunny weather but I also received a package I’ve been waiting on for a few weeks now. I recently decided to go back to school for meteorology and also apply for membership in a few professional weather organizations. As of today, I am a “card carrying” weather nerd. I just received my membership card for the U.S. National Weather Association. This is an organization that I hope to earn their Broadcast Meteorology ‘Seal of Approval’ from in the coming years. For all of you weather buffs out there, the NWA is a great organization that is open to anyone with an interest in weather or operational meteorology. Much like CMOS here in Canada, they are a great resource for information and all things weather. You can actually link to their website right here on the blog in the right hand margin. Now I am just waiting to hear back from the AMS and of course CMOS. Oh boy…the monthly newsletters will be abundant! I am such a nerd. Happy Thursday!

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

A wet day for Earth Day!

Give me an “E!” Give me an “A!” Give me a…well, we'll stop spelling it out there. I think you get the idea. (I was going to spell Earth). Today is Earth Day. A day that many of us try to be a little more friendly to our environment. Unfortunately, this is not a year round initiative for most, including myself, but at least it gets the local kids out of the class room for a few hours to clean up city parks and public areas just in time for the nice weather and plant a few trees.

One thing that many folks do to be ‘green friendly’ on Earth Day is to leave their car at home and ride a bike to work. Mother Nature didn’t make that the easiest thing to do today with scattered showers across the region. Don’t feel guilty. There are a lot of other things you can do at work to help the environment. You can shut down your computer when not using it. Open the blinds and turn off that annoying fluorescent light. Or try putting the photocopier on stand by or sleep mode.

Here’s a great way to really help the planet. Stop drinking bottled water at your desk and put a Brita filter in the lunchroom fridge. Lowering carbon emissions may seem like the top environmental priority but, in my opinion, plastic water bottles and bags are doing more harm to this planet than you’d think. With all of the media coverage focused on climate change, our nation’s landfills are being ignored and are growing beyond their capacity. People forget that the carbon emitted from your tail pipe, although bad, is still a naturally occurring substance in our atmosphere...just Google “Carbon Cycle.” Plastic is not natural and a plastic bag that is less than 1mm thick can take generations to break down. So don’t feel like an “eco-criminal” for driving your kids to school this morning...but packing there lunch in a reusable bag and replacing those juice boxes with refillable containers will go a long way.

Now on to the forecast…some much needed rain again today but the weekend is looking even more promising as we edge closer to Friday. That possible rain event on Sunday looks to be held over until Monday. A band of rain (highlighted in the pic to the left) looks to affect parts of Northern Ontario with rain and even mixed precipitation along the Jet Stream, but high pressure should keep things nice and clean here in the Kawarthas. That warm weather the west has been blessed with also looks to move in to the region with highs in the low to mid 20’s possible Friday and Saturday. Enjoy it. We put a wrap on Earth Week this Sunday and we couldn’t ask for better weather to get out and really enjoy our beautiful planet. Happy Earth Day!

Monday, April 20, 2009

Rain! We love it...well some do.

Finally! A good dose of rain and boy do we need it. This rain today is long overdue. I know a lot folks really hate rainy days, but area farmers are just loving this blast of rain. We just enjoyed over a week long streak of sunny weather and a stretch of very dry days. This has been great news for those living in low lying areas (as the flood watches are being lifted one after another) but bad news for farmers and area golf courses.

Even with the rain today, conditions are still so dry that there has been yet another big grass fire just northwest of Lindsay. So rain really isn’t all that bad and as you can see from the latest NAM run that Low is not tracking all the quickly allowing for unsettled weather over the next few days.

So for those that don’t like rain, here’s some good news. By Thursday that high northeast of us slides east allowing this low to move out and we should see some clearing Wednesday night heading into Thursday if this latest model holds true. Not only should we see a late week clear up but the temperature could be back into the high teens and low twenties by the end of the week as well. It’s still to early to be sure but, so far, things are looking to get warmer by Friday. Let’s hope that lasts through the weekend. Shorts may be wearable in the near future.