Another reason to be concerned.

I saw this Gulf oil forecast on CNN while channel surfing at the gym this morning durning my morning run. Much like a computer model can forecast the weather, the NOAA (they're like the U.S. version of Environment Canada) have released the results of a computer model and yellow dye simulation that forecasts where all of that oil in the Gulf will end up if it is picked up by the now famous "loop current." The model output is not promising.

This model projects that by late July and into early August that oil slick may impact much of the U.S. Atlantic Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras and dangerously close to Atlantic Canada. Now that yellow mass is still well to the south of our shores although it still has me concerned. Cape Hatteras is well known for strong storm development and tropical storms do occaisionally follow that Gulf Stream track and affect the maritimes. With an active hurricane season expected, this should be very concerning to Canadians.

Imagine the damage a powerful tropical storm or hurricane could inflict on our coast with a storm surge pushing that oil closer to our shores. Scary. Even your average summer storm parked in the right position could pull that oil into Canadian waters. Imagine a low pressure center sitting over Nova Scotia pulling in a strong, southerly wind. The results could be terrible.

So how accurate is this forecast model? Well...the ocean is a lot like our atmosphere. In fact, our atmosphere has been described as "an ocean of air." As someone who works with atmospheric computer models on a daily basis, I can tell you that a 14 or even a 7 day model is very often far from accurate. Let alone one that is predicting what will happen over a two month period so we should be far from panic mode. Either way, this model should be cause for concern and shows us that even here in Canada we are not immune to what has been described as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.