What do these two images above have in common? Well, let's discuss the differences first. Each image is from a different forecast model. One image shows rain for our region and the other does not. So what's the propblem? Well...these images are for the same day. They both show Sunday. The image on the left is from the GFS forecast model and the image on the right is from the NAM. Both of these pics were taken from the latest forecast run and they show two very different predictions. The latest GFS run has that very slow moving (almost stationary) front slicing through the region on Sunday bringing a few showers. The lates NAM run shows no rain for Sunday. It is times like this that pose a problem for forecasters like myself...so here is my take on the situation.
That area of high pressure that has been slowing the track of the front (and also what remains of Tropical Storm Ida to the southeast) is continuing to make an exit. The high is being "swallowed up" by Ida, much to the dismay of folks living along the east coast of the U.S. The departure of this High is going to allow that Low seen in the pics above to continue it's track to the east and could spell a few showers for Sunday. If I had to put money on it I'd say there's a very little chance of rain tomorrow and a decent chance for a few showers on Sunday. I'll also be the first to admit that Sunday is a tough one to predict.
Environment Canada seems to be on board with my call for Sunday but are also calling for a chance of showers tomorrow...I think we'll catch a break for your Saturday.
Oh and the "MO" continues to grow. Please help out the cause this "Movember" by making a contribution online by clicking HERE.
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