Once in a blue moon...

First of all...HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Hopefully your enjoying the warm (although a bit messy) weather tonight. Unfortunately for us living here in the Kawarthas, this messy weather is actually hiding a nice a little astronomical treat to put a wrap on 2009. Have you ever heard the expression "once in a blue moon." Well that's what we're missing tonight, thanks to these cloudy conditions. Although a moon can at times appear blue due to ice or dust in the atmosphere filtering out the longer wave lengths of light (leaving just the short waves), that old adage has more to do with the occurrence of this phenomenon. A "blue moon" literally refers to a second full moon in one month. This happens approximately once every 2.5 years. So how rare is a blue moon on New Year's Eve? Well the last time this occured was in 1990. So when you're toasting the new year tonight do keep an eye to the sky and hopefully you'll catch a glimpse of something that only occurs "once in a blue moon."

Another Top Ten List

As far as top ten lists go...this is my favourite. I've condensed Environment Canada's list of the top ten weather stories for 2009. I have to send out a big thanks to David Phillips for putting together this list every year...ENJOY!

10. The first story on Environment Canada’s list has to do with the 9 months of cold that the prairies endured this year. Temperatures were still as low as minus 35 by March, the May long weekend resembled Christmas, Calgary saw almost 4cm of snow in June and parts of western Saskatchewan dealt with frost in July! Oddly enough the warmest weather for the prairies occurred during the month of September.

9. Powerful prairie winds takes the number nine spot as this summer saw powerful straight line winds plough through the prairies. The most dramatic of these winds was when powerful winds tore through the site of the Big Valley Jamboree in Camrose, Alberta. One person died and 75 were injured as the main stage was flattened to the horror of everyone in attendance.

8. For story number eight we head to my hometown of Hamilton, Ontario where a two day rain even left much of “Steeltown” under water. A stalled system lead to a two day rain event that flooded over 7,000 basements and left thousands without power. Flooding turned city streets, and even an expressway, into rivers and insurance losses totaled nearly $300 million.

7. It’s back to Alberta for number seven and we also head back to August 2nd when a major hail storm left a half billion dollar insurance tab in its wake. Hail as large as baseballs fell in parts of the province, one hailstone measured 10cm in diameter.

6. A story that seemed to get little coverage was the slowing of the retreat of Arctic sea ice. Although the ice continued to melt in 2009, the rate at which the ice retreated slowed…unfortunately there was no recovery.

5. It was tough going, or should I tough growing, for farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan who dealt with a double threat. Agricultural produces faced drought and frost at the same time as the prairies experienced their driest spring in half a century and the coldest in over 30 years.

4. Spring was also very troublesome for folks living in Manitoba. Drought wasn’t the problem but just the opposite as ice jams and heavy precipitation lead to the flooding of the Red River. Flood damage exceeded $40 million and 500 homes were either damaged or destroyed.

3. The third spot goes to a story we are very familiar with here in Ontario as 2009 might as well be named the year of the tornado. July ninth alone (the deadliest day) claimed 3 lives as a series of twisters tore across the province. In total Ontario saw 29 tornadoes, far above are annual average of 11.

2. Story number two was no surprise. It was a busy wildfire season in B.C. this year. The province saw more than 3,000 fires that scorched approximately 68,000 hectares of land. The cost of fighting these fires was nearly $400 million!

1. The number one spot goes to summer 2009. I’ll be the first to admit that this summer was lame. Very lame. It was cool and wet here in Ontario and across the east and far too hot for folks living in the west. At times it was warmer in Whitehorse than Orlando yet none of that heat made its way to Peterborough. Let’s hope for a better summer in 2010!

Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas! Happy Holidays! Oh...and best wishes for the new year (just in case we don't get a chance to chat over the next week...but I will be working all week here at CHEX). I just thought I'd pop a quick post up here on the blog to update you on the system that is moving in. Yesterday (see post below) I mentioned the risk of freezing rain and it looks like the threat remains. I think we have a very good chance for some as we push into the afternoon and early evening tomorrow, then changing to rain or a rain/wet snow mix. Boxing Day will be messy as well and warm with a high of 4 degrees. A lump of coal from Mother Nature but let's make the best of it. Stay off the roads and spend time indoors with the family. If you have to travel, leave early tomorrow morning as that's your best bet for decent driving conditions. Merry Christmas and stay safe!

What A Mess!

What would you like first? The good news or the bad news? Let's start with the bad so that we can finish on a good note. Saturday is going to be a mess. A lot of folks will be hitting the streets to get those amazing boxing day sales or to visit family and we have a very warm and messy storm on the way. To the left is a shot of Saturday from the latest GFS run (I've plugged in the Low using MS Paint...as always) and it doesn't look good. That low looks to track just to the west of us, putting us in a nasty transition zone where the "precip" that is falling will be "undecided." What I mean by that is we'll see a bit of snow, changing to rain and then back to snow. Oh...and I should also warn you about the possibility of freezing rain. Anytime you have warm air over cold air you have the chance for icy roads. Wind will also be an issue. It's still too early to be 100% sure about this storm so I promise more details tomorrow. The good news? It looks like we'll have a white Christmas. Expect a few flurries to start Christmas day and we have plenty of snow already on the ground.

Climategate?

I received an email earlier today from Lorna Phillips of Harwood that posed a very interesting question…

“Dear Jay, will you please tell us about sun spots and how the lack of them affect our weather. Are we suffering with the cold weather because of a lack of sun spots?”

Since I have been asked a number of times over the past few weeks to weigh in on the so-called “Climategate” scandal and global warming I thought I’d better respond to this email as best I can. First of all, I must preface my response by making it very clear that I am not a meteorologist or climatologist. I am a broadcaster that is studying meteorology and, although I am working towards becoming broadcast meteorologist, the scientists and researchers that have been gathering in Copenhagen over the last few weeks have a far greater understanding of our planet’s atmosphere than I will probably ever have. These folks dedicate their lives to studying our planet’s climate.

That being said, I still have an opinion and I feel that Lorna’s question touches on something that doesn’t get a lot of attention when it comes to climate change and that is the sun. Life on our planet would not exist without that big, orange ball in the sky. Every living creature on this planet is either a primary or secondary consumer of the sun’s energy. It is the sun, and not carbon, that heats our atmosphere. Our planet converts short wave radiation emitted from the sun into long wave radiation that warms the atmosphere from below. Environmentalists argue that too much carbon in our atmosphere is causing our planet to heat up, and the science seems to back this up. But we have to remember that our planet has been both warmer and colder numerous times throughout history, long before human influence. Oh and Lorna, there is also evidence that the sun may be the driving force behind climate change.

Lorna may be on to something with this email and a lot of scientists are asking the same question. The sun, much like the earth, has its own cycle of “solar activity.” I remember working as a radio operator with the military back in 2001 and how high solar activity made communications very challenging. Since 2001 the sun has become “less active” and some solar scientists are actually concerned that this lack of activity will lead to a period of “global cooling.” Imagine that! There is also evidence that our planet has cooled over the last few years leading to that whole “Climategate” thingy with the release of those hacked emails.

So to answer your question Lorna…I don’t know. That doesn’t mean you’re asking a bad question, you’re just asking the wrong person. I am a broadcaster by trade and am years away from having the knowledge to answer such a great question. (Thanks to Mississippi State University I am working on that though). But Lorna, I urge you to ask other people that question. Ask the experts, the scientists and the researchers because it is a question that is not being asked enough. A lot of the folks that recently gathered in Copenhagen would have done well to ask that very question so thank you for forwarding it to me.

Now to answer the other question I have received in my inbox over the last few weeks. What are my thoughts on climate change? In my opinion I think the science is very young. The recording of temperature and precipitation data is a product of the late 19th and early 20th century and does not go back that far. So is the earth warming up? Science shows that, for the most part, it is. Is carbon the culprit? Well…in my opinion it wouldn’t hurt to drive smaller cars, and consume less energy. We would all be better off if we reduced our waste including the burning of fossil fuels. Smart Car drivers are on to something. I just think that there may be more to our changing climate than what comes out of our tail pipes. By asking questions like Lorna’s, hopefully we’ll come closer to understanding more about our ever changing planet.

Bundle Up!

If you thought last night was cold...wait for tonight. We could actually fall a degree or two below last night's "balmy" low of minus 17. Expect a low of around minus 18 tonight and it will feel much colder when you factor in windchill. This arctic high will be sticking with us again tomorrow with a high of only minus 8 (which is actually the seasonal average for an overnight low for this time of year) and the cold weather persists right though the weekend with highs of around minus 7 for both Saturday and Sunday. So as the title of this blog says "bundle up" and please bring your pets indoors. Dogs and cats may look like they can handle the cold but their fur is no different than a winter jacket. If it's too cold for you and I to spend the night outdoors in a parka, than it is too cold for outdoor pets. Oh, and I had an email earlier about my new winter hat I wore tonight. If you're interested in buying one of those fancy winter hats I was wearing during the 9-2-5 forecast tonight, just give Kawartha Chrysler Jeep Dodge a call. They're around 30 bucks.

Stand close to that flame!

Tonight's the night! Peterborough welcomes the world as the Olympic Torch passes through our fair city on it's way to Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Olympics. This is Day 47 of the torch run and we are now only 59 days away from the winter games...time flies eh? The excitment is building so expect a huge crowd tonight at Morrow Park where the torch should arrive at 7pm after its trip down George Street. It will be around -6 degrees around 7pm and with the windchill it will feel well into the minus double digits....so stand close to that flame and bundle up. Oh, and put on your best smile and make some noise as the world will be watching. Click here for full details on the local torch stops and details on tonight's big gathering in Morrow Park. It's going to be one heck of a party!!!

For Barb

I've had a few emails over the last couple of weeks asking me to post some wedding photos. The most recent email comes from Barb:

"Hey Jay. Show us a picture of the wedding."

Well Barb, good news! My friend Kathy sent me a the proofs of the wedding pics a few weeks ago (she is an amazing photographer by the way), and she gave me permission to post a few of them here on the blog. So here they are!


Kate looked amazing and KBT did an amazing job with the photos. Oh...and Barb, thanks for being patient. I should have posted this a while ago but I am the ultimate procrastinator.

Cheers,

Jay

Snow Emergency!

I thought you'd enjoy this pic. It's good for a laugh on a Friday but the folks in Minden aren't laughing about this snow right now. This picture comes from the OPP detachment in Minden and this is an officer trying to clear the snow off of their truck...wow! That snow is almost shoulder height! Minden is experiencing a snow emergency and, after looking at the latest forecast models, more lake effect snow can be expected tonight. They've been counting snow by the foot to the north over the last few days and with strong westerly winds expected tonight, the Haliburton area remains under a Snow Squall Warning. That's a scary amount of snow.

Blame the lakes! (Not the Weather Guy)

For the city of Peterborough the best thing about today is that yesterday is behind us. Over all we saw around 22mm of precipitation fall. The first 10-15mm of that fell as snow (resulting in over 13cm of snow) and the rest of it fell as rain…which helped to melt the snow. Today may have been windy, it may have been cold but at least we didn’t see all that much snow…that is unless you live north of the city.

For folks in the Bancroft area and specifically Haliburton, snow was a big issue today. Westerly winds are tracking large bands of lake effect snow right across the north resulting in squalls that cause whiteout conditions and leave behind a huge amount of accumulation.

So what is lake effect snow? Looking at the Environment Canada King City radar image I captured earlier today, you can see those massive bands, or “streamers,” of snow. This is what happens when cold, dry air is whipped across the relatively warm lake water. Lake Huron and Georgian Bay (and to a lesser extent Lake Simcoe) are large bodies of water and they hold their heat longer than land. They have a long “thermal memory” so to speak. To the west of us is a very cold air mass. Cold air holds less water vapour than warm air, it has a smaller vapour capacity. (This is why the tropics are so humid and the arctic is so dry). As this air is carried east over the warm lake water it is warmed up. Since it is still very dry it allows for rapid evaporation of the lake water and, much like a sponge, it soaks up a whole lot of moisture. The air is then forced aloft as it hits the shoreline (orographic lifting) and cools adiabatically (which means by expansion) where it is forced to shed its water vapour resulting in huge bands of snow on the leeward side of the lake.

This means that if you live to the east or southeast of a large body of water you are most likely to experience higher snowfall totals at the start of the winter season than you normally would. At least until the lakes freeze over. Since wind occurs most often from the west, folks living on the eastern shores of the Great Lakes are all too familiar with lake effect snow.

A Nasty Commute

If you think my Microsoft Paint skills are nasty...wait until you see the weather tomorrow morning. That (crudely drawn) system you see in the pic above pushing in from the south west and is packing high winds and a lot of precipitation. Luckily for us, most of it should fall as rain. So here is what you can expect for tomorrow. The snow will start up late this evening with windy conditions through the overnight. Expect a snowy (heavy snow at times) start to the day tomorrow with high winds and blowing snow. After some mixing late into the morning the snow should change to rain by 10am. Showers continue throughout the day with blustery conditions until around 7pm as the rain changes back to snow. We'll be to the west of the low tomorrow night so expect a cool down and snow to continue into the overnight. As for snowfall totals (and they're very tough to call with the rain involved) expect over 10cm here in Peterborough and you could see in excess of 15cm to the north. Keep in mind that the more rain we see the better. This is why we are currently under a Winter Storm Warning for the entire region. My advice...take it easy on the drive in and give yourself plenty of time to get to work tomorrow. Oh...and if this system tracks further south than expected we may see a lot more snow than rain. Luckily for us that doesn't look to be the case.

Here Comes Santa Clause

I love this pic! Carl Hoskisson sent me this one last year when I had a chance to meet Santa at Peterborough Square...although I can't explain the stupid look on my face. I chose this pic for today's blog because this weekend is a big one featuring the "big guy." It's the first weekend of December! Shoppers will be hitting the malls and stores, the corporate types will be partying it up at their office Christmas parties and the Kinsmen Santa Clause Parade wil be making its way down George Street.

The weather looks to be great for the parade but you will need to bundle up. By the time the parade gets underway you can expect the temperature to be a few degrees below freezing, but that's where we should be for an early December evening so it's hard to complain. (Although it will feel colder factoring in wind chill). The parades official start time is 4:45pm and more details can be found by clicking here and don't forget to bring your non-perishables. I know that the Flemming College Folk Committee will be collecting for their hamper campaign.

Also this weekend, be sure to help out the Peterborough Army Cadets who are having their "Tag Day" this Saturday from 9am until 3pm. Cadets will be at stores across the city collecting funds to support various cadet activities so please help them out. The Salvation Army's Christmas Kettle campaign is underway as well so have your change handy and finally, this Sunday Junior Achievement Peterborough is holding their big fundraiser based on the movie "The Bucket List." Come check out their silent auction this Sunday evening at the Holiday Inn. The items up for grabs include amazing trips, getaways and even the chance to spend the day with some of Peterborough's most interesting people...I somehow managed to get on that list so if you'd like to work in the "CHEX Weather Centre" for a few hours please place a bid. For ticket info please call the Kawartha FEST office at (705) 874-6960.

Have a great weekend!

Singing in the rain...

Please note that I am not actually encouraging anyone to go outside and sing in the rain. It's not that I'm worried someone will drown...you'll just really annoy your neighbours. As for the rain, that system you see in the pic to the left (part of the same system that brought snow to Texas), well that Low is packing a lot of moisture. Ahead of the Low we saw a nice southerly breeze and a 10 degree daytime high. Well now that it's here we can expect 20 to 30mm of rain overnight and a big cool down tomorrow. Not only are we going to be hit hard with showers, this system's departure finally allows that arctic air to the north to sink south and bring us back down to the kinds of daytime highs we should be seeing in December. As for a silver lining...if it wasn't for the warm weather tonight 20-30mm of rain could easily have fallen as 20-30cm of SNOW! So maybe rain is not all that bad. Now there's something to sing about!

A Busy Weekend!

Well, the weekend is here. The final weekend for the month of November and, for the most part, the weather is still looking pretty good across the region. It will be cooler and cloudier than last weekend but we will see a little sunshine on the installment plan. Don’t forget to check out the tree lighting ceremony in Bridgenorth on Saturday. The event kicks off in Lion’s park at 4:30pm with a choir on hand and the Lion’s club will be serving free hot dogs and hot chocolate. Also…be sure to check out these Santa Clause parades:

o Campelford at 3pm
o Fenelon Falls at 5pm
o Port Hope at 1pm
o Port Perry at 5pm
o Warsaw at 5pm
o Madoc at 7pm

Oh, and Minden’s parade is also this Saturday but I couldn’t track down the time…sorry. Festival of Trees continues here in Peterborough click here to check out their website for more info and if you like this look…

























Don’t miss the “Stache Bash” this tomorrow night at Riley’s in downtown Peterborough. If we raise over $5,000 then I’ll dawn the bite suit and become the Peterborough Police K9 unit’s chew toy. The “Molice” have raised around $4,000 so far. Make a contribution online by clicking here. We’ll see you Saturday night!

A wet week ahead.

After a great weekend it looks like the rain is finally here. Yesterday we saw a cloudy start to the week and today gave us a few light showers and drizzle...tonight we can expect rain. Expect a warm up tomorrow with showers off and on throughout the day. How long is this rain going to stick around? Well that image you see is from the latest GFS forecast run and is what Thursday should look like. This rain could be with us until Friday morning until clearing out just in time for Saturday. Good news for folks planning on attending Santa Clause parades this Saturday in Campbellford, Fenelon Falls, Port Hope and Minden.

Ho Ho Ho!

I know it feels like spring but the big day is getting closer. Hard to believe we're just over one month away from Christmas with all of the warm, sunny weather we've had for the month of November. (Although tomorrow looks to be a wet one). Well consider this weather an early Christmas gift as winter is just around the corner and a sure sign of the winter season is seeing the "big guy" on parade. Here's a list of a few local Santa Clause parades on this weekend.

· Haliburton – Friday at 6pm
· Oshawa – Saturday at 6pm
· Lakefield – Sunday at 1:30pm
· Lindsay – Sunday at 2pm
· Cobourg – Sunday at 2pm

Oh...and mark December 5th down in your day planner for the big parade here in Peterborough. Let's hope for a little snow for the big night.

"Sunday Bloody Sunday"

What do these two images above have in common? Well, let's discuss the differences first. Each image is from a different forecast model. One image shows rain for our region and the other does not. So what's the propblem? Well...these images are for the same day. They both show Sunday. The image on the left is from the GFS forecast model and the image on the right is from the NAM. Both of these pics were taken from the latest forecast run and they show two very different predictions. The latest GFS run has that very slow moving (almost stationary) front slicing through the region on Sunday bringing a few showers. The lates NAM run shows no rain for Sunday. It is times like this that pose a problem for forecasters like myself...so here is my take on the situation.

That area of high pressure that has been slowing the track of the front (and also what remains of Tropical Storm Ida to the southeast) is continuing to make an exit. The high is being "swallowed up" by Ida, much to the dismay of folks living along the east coast of the U.S. The departure of this High is going to allow that Low seen in the pics above to continue it's track to the east and could spell a few showers for Sunday. If I had to put money on it I'd say there's a very little chance of rain tomorrow and a decent chance for a few showers on Sunday. I'll also be the first to admit that Sunday is a tough one to predict.

Environment Canada seems to be on board with my call for Sunday but are also calling for a chance of showers tomorrow...I think we'll catch a break for your Saturday.

Oh and the "MO" continues to grow. Please help out the cause this "Movember" by making a contribution online by clicking HERE.

Mother Nature Remembers

Tomorrow is a very important day. Remembrance day is our opportunity as Canadians to pay our respect to those brave men and women who have served and, in many cases, died for our country. As a weather guy I can't even begin to tell you how important a good forecast is for our vets every November 11th. For a lot of these older men and women, a cold and wet day can pose a very serious risk to their health. Rain and snow is not enough to keep them indoors as they'll brave whatever Mother Nature throws at them as this is a very important day. Well I am happy to say that tomorrow will be sunny and mild, perfect weather to pay our respects to those that fought for our freedom. Hopefully we'll see a great turnout tomorrow across from city hall.

Grow a "Mo" for Movember.

That's right ladies. Watch out! Jay Scotland is about to become one hot stud. It's going to take a lot of self control over the next few weeks to not become a little hot and bothered while watching Newswatch Weather on CHEX TV. Just remember this as you watch the ultra hot Jay Scotland grace your TV screen...he's a married man! Okay, I'll admit to being a little sarcastic off the top and (in the interest of full disclosure) I'll also admit to resembling a hobbit in real life. But a moustache does seem to have a certain effect on women and I'll be sporting one over the next few weeks. (Or at least trying to grow one). And ladies...even if facial hair isn't your thing remember that this is for a good cause. After an invite from the Peterborough Lakefield Police I have decided to join the "Molice" and grow a "stache" to raise awareness and funds in the fight against Prostate Cancer. For more details please check out this website. This is a great way to change the face of men's health and if you'd like to help out my fundraising effort please CLICK HERE to make a donation online. Any amount will go a long way.

Snow? Really?

Snow? Are we really that surprised? Well...it is that time of year. We are in November. Still, a collective gasp can be heard across the country the second that word is uttered. Now before we get all worked up over a few flakes I will say that there is just a small chance that we'll see any tonight in Peterborough...but there is a chance. It all comes down to temperature. (For you budding meteorologists out there, it often comes down to the location of the "0 Degree Wet Bulb Isotherm," Google it if you have the time). But temperature is ultimately the deciding factor on what form of precipitation falls and I think it will stay warm enough here in Peterborough to hold off the snow tonight. Expect a few showers this evening and maybe a rain/wet snow mix. The low will be plus 1 so wet snow is still possible. Here in the city we're on the transition line tonight and areas north of that line have a pretty good chance of seeing a few flurries. Bancroft and north to Haliburton have a could see some snow tonight as the temperature wil be a few degrees cooler. So don't be surprised if you see a few flakes north of Peterborough. Oh...and please don't blame the Weather Guy. Winter is fun...embrace it!

Safety First

First of all...I have to send out a big thank you to mother nature for Halloween night. The weather certainly was a treat. Late in the afternoon things started to clear and, although it was windy (gusts in excess of 60 km/h), by 6pm it was was relatively clear and 9 degrees in the city. Not bad. That glimmer of hope we talked about on Wednesday (see blog post below) played out in the best case senario...awesome. Well, now we enter November. We're back to standard time and it's time to pack away the Halloween decorations for another year. I just thought I'd pop a blog post up here to remind you to change the smoke alarm batteries before you start unpacking the Christmas decorations. The busy holiday season will soon be upon us so it's best to change them now before we forget over the hectic run-up to Christmas. Enjoy the first day of November (it's a treat as well) and I'll see you tomorrow on Newswatch.

Some Hope For Halloween

With Halloween just a few days away...I will not bore you with a blog about NASA's new rocket. (Although I will admit to "nerding out" over it's launch). I know what most folks are concerned about and it's not a rocket...but the Halloween forecast. Halloween is supposed to be a scary night but nobody likes a frightening forecast. Well that's what we were faced with earlier this week and the kids were not happy with Mother Nature. Well I am happy to say there is hope for Saturday night. That system expected to bring wet and windy weather may arrive a little earlier than expected which means an earlier departure. Checking the latest GFS run it looks like we could see some clearing by the time the "Trick or Treaters" hit the pavement. When I say clearing I mean a break from the rain. I've highlighted that possible break from the rain on the GFS image seen above and there is a chance that after the frontal passage we could dry up just in time for the kids. Now this is only a forecast model so please take this with a grain of salt. In short...hope for a rainy Friday so that Saturday is alright for the kiddies.

Peterborough & The Kawartha's

Earlier today I had the chance to meet a man that most folks from the area are, I'm sure, already very familiar with. Being (kind of) new to the area I was happy to finally meet former member of parliment and Trent University professor Peter Adams this morning. Peter was at Titles in downtown Peterborough this morning prepping for the launch of the 3rd edition of "Peterborough and the Kawarthas," the popular text edited by himself and Colin Taylor. I managed to score a copy of this book last week and I was blown away by the amount of info offered for a low $30 price tag. As a meteorology student I am used to paying more than $200 (in some cases) for a single text book and this book offers just as much information. Enjoy the full colour pictures, charts and graphs all beautifully laid out and easy to read. Having only lived in the region since February, this book is a great tool for understanding this beautiful region. From geology and climatology to urban planning, this book packs a lot of information between the covers. Oh...and you'll also be supporting an annual award that helps students entering their fourth year in the Trent geography program. Be sure to join Peter and Colin tomorrow at Titles on George Street at 7pm and the following day at Chapters for a book signing. The book is also available at the Canadian Canoe Museum, the Hutchison House and at various book stores across the city.

Cool but clear...

Do you see that nasty low in the pic to the left? That Nor' Easter is going to be the second major fall storm for folks living in Newfoundland and looks to be packing winds almost as high as the "Weather Bomb" that pushed through the island on Wednesday. So what does this mean for us here in the Kawarthas? Well these systems often do play a role in our weather as the "warp around" precipitation does reach as far west as the great lakes. Luckily for us that arctic high responsible for this week's cool weather is acting as a blocker to keep that nasty weather at bay. So although it's going to be cool...the rain and snow will be a problem for folks to the east, while clear conditions prevail here in Central Ontario. You see...there is a silver lining to the cool down.

A Married Man!

I'm back...it's been a while. I've been off for the last week and a bit and I quickly want to thank Graham for filling in for me while I was away getting hitched. After nearly 8 years with Kate we finally tied the knot on Ocober 3rd. I know I couldn't invite all of you so I thought I'd post a few pics of our wedding at St. Mark's Church in Kingston and of the reception on the Island Star cruise ship. It was a fantastic day, the weather was great (awesome) and Kate looked so beautiful I cried...a lot. Enjoy the pics!

Oh...and I have to thank my buddy Dave for snapping these pics. They look great! The official pictures won't be available for a few more weeks...but these look awesome. Hope you enjoyed them.

Why the cool down?

With over 20mm of rain, hail, wind speeds fast enough to take out a hydro pole (and leave over 9,000 folks without power), a funnel cloud sighting near the 7A exit on the 115 and a confirmed F1 tornado north of Bowmanville...this has been a busy week weatherwise. But even with all of that activity, what people are talking most about this week is the cold. As that area of low pressure continues to spin NE of us it is "pulling" some very cool air into the region from the north. Low pressure centers (or mid-latitude cyclones) are identified by their counterclockwise wind direction. When you are to the west of a "Low" you can expect a northerly flow wind and that is why we're experiencing a cool down. (Just check out the pic above). Today's high was only 9 degrees, tonight's low is only 3 degrees, the high tomorrow will be similar to today and tomorrow night...um...well we expect a low of around the freezing mark. But hey...wearing a scarf is very fashionable.

Off to a great start...

The title of this blog sounds promoising for the weekend...but a great start doesn't always lead to a happy ending. That is the case for tomorrow. That area of high pressure looks to stall the rain for a little longer than expected which could give us a nice start to the day tomorrow. I think we'll see a sunny start to the day with relatively clear conditions into the first half of the afternoon. Unfortunately the cloud cover looks to develop before dinner with showers firing up by tomorrow night. A sunny start but a wet end to the day...but we still need the rain so it's not all bad.

"Fall" is Here!

Well, here’s the video. I thought you'd enjoy this...what a way to welcome Fall. Special thanks to the organizers of the Lindsay Central Exhibiton and the Skyhawks for giving both myself and Brian from CHUM Kawarthas the thrill of a lifetime. What an experience!!!

Fall Colours

Well it's that time again! Time for fall colour pics. Now fall doesn't officially begin until the 22nd but the trees are starting to turn colour and I need your pics! Send your fall colour pics in to chextv.com by clicking on the link to my email address in the weather section of the main page. I can't promise to get them all on the air but I'll try get as many as I can on Newswatch. So clear some room on your SD card, pop some fresh batteries into your digital camera and let's show off some great pics of our region during this stunning time of year. As for the weather tomorrow...I think we could see a few showers in the morning then clearing into the afternoon and the weekend looks great. Maybe a little chilly at night but otherwise not bad at all. Full details tonight on Newswatch.

You say goodbye and I'll say hello...

Well it looks like we're about to say goodbye to an area of high pressure that has been with us for the long haul...but don't be sad. We get to to say "hi" to another high over the weekend that looks to contiunue this amazing sunny streak. (Where was this weather in July)?!?! Well if you were unhappy with the summer you must be loving September and these sunny conditions look to continue. The pic I've posted here is of the latest GFS run and this (and other forecast models) show another area of high pressure developing and continuing the sunny streak right into next week! Now I am not entirely ruling out the potential for a few showers over the weekend (communities along the lakeshore could see some rain due to that potent low that has been slowly sliding up the eastern seaboard) but overall...expect a pretty decent weekend with more sun.

School Update

Back in May I decided to go back to school for Meteorology and keep you updated on the blog on my progress...I just realized I have yet to do that. In fact...I haven't even posted this week. The reason? I blame school. So it's time for an update. Over the summer I completed my first semester of Mississippi State University's Broadcast Meteorology Program and am now taking courses covering Geography and Synoptic Meteorology. Between my work here at CHEX (and Channel 12 in Oshawa), my involvement with the cadet program and planning a wedding (October 3rd is the big day...woo hoo) school has really been a challenge. Challenging but fun! I am also really learning a lot about weather. I have always considered myself a "weather buff" but, through this program, I am now taking that understanding to a new level. Over the last few months what I have really learned is how much I didn't know about weather...very humbling. So for the next few months I 'll continue to post updates on my progress and my new love of calculus. (Okay...a little sarcasm on that last one). And thanks for being so patient with the lack of blog posts lately. So as for semester 2, so far so good. As for the weather? Well, we could catch a break this weekend. Details tonight at 6pm.

"Shear" Luck!

I love delivering good news. This last week has been all good news for weather locally. Or a total lack of local weather...gotta love that high. So let's talk about Puerto Rico for a second where some "weather" is actually happening. Erika is no longer expected to become a hurricane or even remain a tropical storm for much longer. Erika is currently sliding west at arounf 15km/h with sustained winds of over 70 km/h. Central pressure is 100.8 kPa. A fairly potent little cyclone but it will likely fizzle out over the weekend and be nothing more than a strong "Low" by Saturday night into Sunday. Good news for the folks lving (or vacationing) in the islands and great news for the Maritimes who have already had to deal with two tropical systems in as many weeks. Gotta love that windshear!

Brought to you by the letter "H."

First off, what a weekend! I know it was cold and, for the most part, rainy. But talk about a great time on Saturday. I was dunked 7 times in the dunk tank at Wal-Mart in support of Red Cross Canada and then (after drying off) checked out some amazing wakeboarding and live music from "The Wolf's Big Deck" at the Canadian Wakeboard Championships. Mother nature even gave us some unexpected sunshine on Saturday afternoon to take it all in. We were lucky as Saturday was expected to be a wash out.

Now on to the forecast. Do you see that "big blue H" in the pic. Aside from the fact that my Microsoft Paint skills are improving, that is a great site. That area of high pressure could stick with us for the next week and beyond. In fact, that is a screen shot I grabbed from the latest GFS run for next Monday! Keep in mind that you have to look at a long range forecast with a big grain of salt, but if the trend holds true, we could see sunshine for the next week and a half! Let's hope this model plays out. I'll break it all down for you tonight and also have a update on Hurricane Jimena on the Pacific coast and what could become a new named storm in the Atlantic.

See you tonight on Newswatch at 6pm!

Jay

Rain for the weekend?

I hate to put a damper on the weekend but I think I should at least keep you informed about a possible rain event. What you're seeing in this image is a satellite shot courtesy of the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida. The little disturbance (circled in red) is sitting a few hundred miles off the coast of Puerto Rico and has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. So what does this have to do with Peterborough? Although some very early forecast models are putting a track on this possible cyclone along the eastern seaboard, it is still way too early to put any confidence into these models. That being said, tropical cyclone or not, this disturbance has a good chance of bringing us some rain maybe Saturday or Sunday. Substantial rain. Not good news for those planning on attending the Canadian Wakeboard Championships. I'll keep you posted on this as it develops.

Ooooh What A Night!

Oh what storm! Wow. This was literally a tornado outbreak across the province with (as of the time I am writing this) two confirmed tornadoes and more possible twisters under investigation. The two confirmed tornadoes were in Newmarket and Vaughan where that twister tore through a residential neighbourhood putting a portion of the GTA in a state of emergency. A possible tornado in the town of Durham caused damage to a number of buildings and high winds in that community resulted in the death of an 11 year old boy when the structure he was taking shelter in collapsed. Tornado sightings stretched from Southern Ontario to as far north as North Bay where a waterspout possibly made landfall which would count as a tornado (if confirmed). Here in Peterborough heavy rain and lightning lead to a power outage postponing the Peterborough Laker's game and left many in the dark. East of the city (toward Norwood) high winds levelled a barn and tore the roof off of a home. Although not a tornado, this was likely caused by a rapidly sinking column of air known as a microburst. (Resulting in a very powerful straight line wind gust).

So why did this happen? Well the short answer is that Ontario was as hot as "Soup" yesterday. It was into the mid-thirties with the humidex value yesterday and all of the ingredients for severe weather were in this "soup." High dewpoint, muggy conditions, a hot daytime high and an approching front of cold air just ready to force this warm, sticky air aloft. A line of storms was the result and, although they are over, the damage is left as a reminder to the power of "Ma' Nature." Very scary stuff but luckily no injuries have been reported across the region.

So now what? Well...now we move on and enjoy the fact that, here in Peterborough, we dodged a bullet. Even though the weekend forecast isn't perfect, Mother Nature isn't likely to throw anything as severe as yesterday's storm our way so get out and enjoy it. There is a bunch of activities taking place across the region including the wrap on this years Festival of Lights in Peterborough and tomorrow's Regional Maple Syrup Day in Campbellford (Doors open at 8am at St. John's United Church in Campbellford).

What a storm...but now we'll focus on Bill. Follow my updates on Bill on Twitter (the link is on the side of the blog) and we'll see you Monday.

Jay

Microburst?

After seeing the damage caused by Monday's late afternoon thunderstorm that tore through Omemee and Enismore I decided I should post this video. I managed to get out to the Pigeon Lake area yesterday armed with a camera (and a tripod) and I even had a chance to speak with some of the residents. This damage was likely caused by a downburst or microburst. The damage appeared to be the result of "straight line" wind and not a tornado as the trees all seemed to fall or snap off in the same general direction. This serves as an important reminder that it doesn't take a tornado or a hurricane for life threatening wind to occur during a thunderstorm. Very scary stuff. Oh and Deb...sorry about the car. If you enjoyed this video please check out my You Tube channel where I'll be posting more in the near future. Click here to follow the "Weather Nerd."

First Aid Tips

Tonight on Newswatch Weather we'll have a very informative feature for you. With the recent lightning strike in Southern Ontario that has put three people (2 of them young children) in hospital, I thought it would be a good idea to learn how to help a lightning strike victim. Luckily for us the good folks at St. John Ambulance will give us some advice tonight at 6pm that could help save a life. I want to send a big thanks out to Connie, Laura and Daniell at the SJA here in Peterborough for a really great demonstration of how good first aid training is essential to help a lightning strike victim. Oh and don't forget about the tips we went over last night. When caught in a storm it is best to stay low, avoid tall or metal objects, find cover (like a builidng or inside a vehicle) and stay indoors unitl 30 minutes after the last rumble of thunder. We'll see you tonight on Newswatch @ 6pm.

The Light Show!

Well tonight is the night to keep an eye on the sky. The Perseid meteor shower will hopefully light up the night sky later this evening and, according to the Peterborough Astronomical Association, peak activity is expected early tonight. The P.A.A. is meeting tonight on top of Armour Hill and everyone is welcome to join them around 10:30pm. The site of the Peterborough Museum and Archives on top of the hill is definitely the best place in the city to take in the show and if you're interested in joining the P.A.A. just click here to check out their website. Oh...and expect relatively clear conditions.

Back in the "Patch."

Well...I'm back. Back from the little slice of heaven that is the family cottage. The pic above was taken by my fiancee Kate and is a nice shot of our dock at sunset. Great pic! The cottage is located on a nice little island (there is a bridge) on a tiny little lake about an hour from Sudbury. The lake is very tiny and there is no public boat launch so it is very private. (I'm not even sure the lake is even plotted on a map...very cool). I try to make it up to the cottage every year to hit the "reset button" but I think Mother Nature is the one that needs to unwind. In addition to the big storm I missed last week Mother Nature was hard at work last night on my return to the "Peter Patch." What a light show! After checking the radar last night it appears we dodged a bullet here in the city as the bulk of the activity tracked south of us. We still saw high winds, lightning and heavy rain last night but nothing like what our friends in Toronto experienced. Wind speeds topped out at 96km/h in the GTA and the lightning was deadly. A lot of ground strikes in T.O. and even here in the Kawarthas. Unfortunately a small cottage near Fenelon Falls caught fire due to a strike and a number of folks were without power. Scary stuff but overall we came out okay. We'll get you all of the details on last night's storm tonight on Newswatch.

Vacation!!!

Well it's more of a "Staycation" but either way I am off this week. Graham will be filling in for me and I made him promise not to be too accurate with the weather so that I'll still have my job when I come back to work on Monday. Most of my vacation will be spent here in Peterborough but I do hope to get up to the cottage for a few nights at some point and I'll post a few pics if I do. See you Monday!

Cheers,

Jay

Horsing Around!

First off...I apologize for the lack of blog activity this week thus far. (I've been really busy with school but it's all good now). I just wanted to quickly talk about a great fundraising event I took place in over the weekend. I also wanted to say thanks to horse trainer extraordinaire Randy Bird for a great time. Over the weekend I had a chance to take part in "Tanner's Dash For Cash" in Harwood. This event was part of Randy's Equine Education Clinic and was in support of Easter Seals. Tanner is a four year old horse that was rescued in poor health and has grown into an amazing athlete. He shares a lot of qualities with the children that Easter Seals help to support. Tanner's story proves that when one is given a fair shot at life, anything is possible. In this charity race Randy and Tanner navigate through an obstacle course at high speed while I hang on for dear life and balance out the trailer through tight turns...to avoid tipping. (We did almost tip at one point...very cool).

This was a timed race between myself and one of Randy's staff and (just check the pic above) even included a water hazard. Begginer's luck must ahave been a factor because I actually won one of the relays. The real winner though was the Easter Seals Society as spectators were invited to buy tickets to win a ride with Tanner with proceeds helping out this great organization. Just looking at the pic above you can see why this prize was worth the investment...what a rush! (Although I did get a bit wet).

Wet Weekend?

It’s a big weekend in terms of events (as per usual for summer in the Kawarthas) and once again many of them are relying on the weather. This Friday and Saturday the Smashed ’09 Beach Volleyball tournament is on at Boston Pizza on Lansdowne…outdoors. This Saturday the MS Society of Peterborough is holding their Putt n’ Play fundraiser (behind Pizza Hut on Lansdowne) where you can toss a water balloon (or several) at CHEX Sports guy Tyler Calver. On Saturday night our CHEX news anchor extraordinaire Jaye Makinson hosts the Festival of Lights and running all weekend in Harwood Randy Bird will hold is Equine Clinic where I will race Team Tanner in a charity carriage race in support of Easter Seals on Saturday. Visit his website for details. Unfortunately it looks like a good chance of rain through out the weekend but, as the model above shows, there is a chance we could steal a few decent hours of weather on Saturday. Let’s cross our fingers that this forecast model holds true.

Saying Hello to the High!

Well it finally felt like summer today...for a while...sort of. Okay, the daytime was still slightly off the seasonal average (27) but 26 was not bad and with the Humidex it felt closer to 29. So what's with the warm-up? Well on Friday we were talking about the lack of a Bermuda High on the weather map contributing to a cooler than normal summer and we're finally seeing that high develop. A Bermuda High is a semi-permanent feature that pushes warm, moist air into the region contributing to our normally hot and humid summers. This feature's clockwise rotation kicks in warm tropical air (mTw) during the summer months. In contrast, its west coast cousin (the Pacific High) does the opposite for the Pacific coast. (The high's clockwise rotation in this case pulls in cool air from the north [mPk] keeping west coast summers cooler and less humid). So does the "better late than never" appearence of the Bermuda High mean we'll finally see a warmer summer? Well...maybe. It is only a contributing factor but it's appearance isn't going to hurt.

If you don't like the forecast...wait 5 minutes!

I'm sure you've heard the expression "if you don't like the forecast...wait 5 minutes." Well that has been the case this week as the numerical forecast models have not been consistent. We've gone from a sunny weekend outlook, to a rainy one, to a cloudy one, to partly sunny and now...well the latest run on the NAM is showing possible late day rain for Sunday. (I've highlighted the rain and the low in MS Paint...high tech I know). So here is what your local guy (me) is calling for. I think we can expect a bit of sun tomorrow with increasing cloudiness and a few possible showers later in the day. Clearing into Sunday and not a bad day at all. But, looking at this latest forecast run, I would not be surprised if we saw a little rain late in the day. A slight chance and not enough to spoil the weekend. As a forecaster...I'll be happy when this week is done. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big One!

I remember the first time I saw the footage of the great flood of 2004. It was not long after I started my broadcasting career working in Kingston for a radio station that shared studios with CHEX TV’s sister station CKWS. As the footage started to arrive, to air on Kingston’s newscast, it would stop people in their tracks. Over the next few days stories would come into the CKWS newsroom and updates on the situation would air regarding flooded businesses, homes and streets hundreds of kilometers away. It wasn’t just Kingston. Newspapers, television and radio stations across the province, the country and even the world printed or aired stories about this flood. The reason? Aside from the economic damage (over $100m) this flood was just "different" in a lot of ways.

This was no tropical cyclone that tracked in from the Gulf or the Atlantic. This system actually formed over Edmonton and tracked east finally settling in over Peterborough. Fed on the backside by cool, sinking air from the northwest this area of low pressure drew in warm, moist air from the south and over 5 days just saturated the region. It has been estimated that well over 200mm fell in the first five hours of the rain storm. The Trent University weather station recorded over 400mm of rain that July! That is far and above total precipitation values for a given summer. The amount of rain that fell could have filled the Memorial Centre easily 100 times!!! That is a crazy amount of moisture, especially from a system that originated in Alberta.

It was a perfect storm that persisted for days and will be remembered for many years to come. Happy Anniversary Peterborough! You survived one of the worst rain events in Canadian history and likely the worst in Ontario. Working through this disaster was a true testament to the hard working spirit and resilience of this community and is one reason why I am now proud to make Peterborough my home. It should be no surprise that this flood was one of the top ten weather stories issued by Environment Canada in 2004. (Number 4 by the way).

Feel free to share your memories of the flood by leaving a comment on the blog.

Gone With The Wind...

I thought you might enjoy these pics from Lakefield. A big thank you goes out Lucas for snapping some great storm damage shots. Even though we caught a break on Saturday here in Peterborough...other communities across the region were not so lucky. As you can see from the pics below Lakefield was hammered with high winds, heavy rain and hail. Even more severe weather hit Oshawa with a possible tornado touching down there in the Lakeview Park region along the water south of the city. Very scary stuff. (Environment Canada is currently investigating). For the next few days we can expect relatively calm conditions but (yet again) temperatures will be on the cool side. Even though it's not as warm as we'd like it to be, considering what happened over the weekend, I'll be content with cool and clear. Happy Monday!