Jay's Weather Blog

Snow tonight?

2010-11-19T16:31:00.004-05:00

Well that "clipper" we were talking about yesterday is continuing to "clip" across Ontario. I'm going to refer to this storm as a clipper even though, unlike most clippers, it's dropping a decent amount of precipitation. Before hitting Northwestern Ontario with snow today, this storm dumped 10-15cm on Southern Manitoba. Residents of Winnipeg woke up to a "winter wonderland" this morning. Well now this storm is moving through Ontario...so are we going to see any snow?

Some mixed precipitation is possible tonight (maybe some wet snow just north of the city) but we'll likely just see rain tonight as the temperature will be too mild. As you can see in the image above, the latest ADONIS model has the rain/snow line well north of the city. I think the best bet for snow this evening (in our viewing region) would be in Haliburton.

Windy & Wet

2010-11-17T14:57:00.002-05:00

Last night’s soaker was indeed a soaker. Luckily that area of low pressure that brought the rain moved over our region like a bullet. By 10am this morning the rain had mostly tapered off and rainfall totals for our region (with the exception of Oshawa) was on the low end of yesterday’s forecasted values…

• Peterborough (Airport) - 21.7mm
• Peterborough (Downtown Post Office) - 20mm
• Bancroft - 19.3mm*
• Oshawa - 35.4mm

While 20mm here in Peterborough is a lot of rain, Oshawa nearly doubled that. Both of these totals were nothing compared to the rain Kingston saw (my old CKWS TV stomping grounds). K-Town was the clear “winner” with 53.7mm as of 9am this morning when Environment Canada issued a special weather statement with that total. Now that the rain has cleared (yay) it is wind that will be a problem (boo). Gusts in excess of 55km/h have already been recorded at the airport and the wind will continue to shift to a more northwesterly component which will cool things down. Wind was responsible for affecting the Otonabee Transmission Station leaving over 1000 customers without power this afternoon. Power has now been restored (for now) but more outages are possible as high winds continue affect our region this evening.

*Bancroft total as of 9am...rain was still falling there much later.

Movember Update

2010-11-15T14:35:00.004-05:00

I think we’ll make this a Monday tradition. Every Monday I’ll give “the ladies” a reason to check out my Weather Blog and today that reason is Tom Selleck. Selleck’s “mo” defined what it meant to be a good looking guy in the 80’s and is a true inspiration for Movember supporters like myself. If only my “stache” looked anywhere close to that. I thought I’d throw up another blog on the “mo” to say thanks to everyone that has made a contribution.

• Mary Reynolds - $25.00
• Donna Sally - $20.00
• Murray Barton - $25.00
• Brian Lainey - $5.00
• Bob &Patti (Bydandacres Kennels) - $100.00
• Bill Brueschy - $50.00
• Beth Smith - $25.00

THANK YOU to everyone that has donated thus far! All of the money raised will help support Prostrate Cancer research so please keep the donations coming in. If you’d like to help out, click here to donate to my Mo-Space page with a valid credit card. You can also drop off a cash donation at our studios (743 Monaghan Rd) during regular business hours. Thanks again and check back next Monday for a list of the latest donors and another “drool worthy” moustache picture.

What a week!

2010-11-12T16:42:00.004-05:00

What a week! This has been an incredible week in terms of weather (or lack thereof) with warm and sunny conditions across the Kawarthas. Our 30 year seasonal average this time of year in Peterborough is between 6 and 7 degrees for a daytime high. How warm has it been?

• Monday, 10.1
• Tuesday, 11.3
• Wednesday, 11.2
• Thursday, 11.5
• Friday, 15 degrees!!!!!!!

While 15 degrees is far from a record (current record stands at 18.9 degrees in 1927) 15 degrees Celsius is still a great way to put wrap on an amazing week weather wise. So when will this streak of great weather come to an end? Likely on Sunday…

Looking at the latest NAM run (above), after another warm and sunny day tomorrow that area of High pressure exits allowing that frontal boundary just west of us to move in on Sunday. The passage of a cold front Sunday will likely bring showers followed by cooler weather heading into next week. Sadly...all good things must come to an end. At least tomorrow looks promising. Have a great Saturday!!!

Remembrance Day

2010-11-10T16:30:00.003-05:00

I love when our veterans get the good weather they deserve for Remebrance Day. November can be very "hit or miss" when it comes to the weather and November 11th is always a gamble. As a reservist (first with the communications reserve and now with the cadet program) I've taken part in countless Remembrance Day ceremonies and have witnessed our veterans deal with both the best and the worst that Mother Nature has to offer. The fact of the matter is this...a large number of our veterans are getting old. The brave men and women who served in World War 2 and the Korean War are getting on in years and bad weather can be very bad for their health. A large number of our veterans literally risk their health to attend Remembrance Day ceremonies across Canada and they, more than anyone, deserve a great forecast so that they can be honoured on November 11th. Tomorrow looks to be very nice for our veterans, our service men and women and our cadets. Although I expect a chilly start to the day, by 10am the temperature should be around 4 degrees with lots of sunshine. For those planning on attending Remembrance Day lunches or dinners the afternoon and evening looks even better. As an area of low pressure approaches (see image above) we'll start to see a more southerly component to the wind which will only help to keep things mild. With great weather expected please take advantage of the mild weather and visit your local cenotaph to pay respect to those who have served. If you plan on attending the Peterborough ceremony...I'll see you there!

The "Mo" is Back!

2010-11-08T14:28:00.004-05:00

When one thinks of a moustache the image of Burt Reynolds often comes to mind. Looking at the image above it's hard to believe that the moustache is now a rarity when it comes to male sex symbols. Burt offered the ladies something the likes George Clooney, Robert Pattinson and Tom Cruise all lack...a great "duster." Admittedly, I've been "on the fence" about taking part in this year's Movember fundraiser. I thought "the mo" simply wasn't a good look for me. Apparently I was wrong. I should never have doubted the sheer power of "the stache" as the outpouring of people (namely women) who have been voicing their concern over my lack of facial hair this month has become too large to ignore. Well ladies, I have good news...I'm back on the wagon. I'm growing a "mo" and I need your support. Nearly 25, 000 men will be diagnosed with Prostate Cancer this year and over 4, 000 will die. That's a lot of "mo's." Let's "save the males" but raising some dollars this "Movember." Click here to donate to the cause and let's help the Peterborough Lakefield "Molice" change the face of mens health.

Rain today, snow tomorrow...really?

2010-11-04T16:46:00.002-04:00

If you've been watching the "Newswatch Weather Updates" today on CHEX TV you probably already know about that "chance of a few flurries" tomorrow evening. (Sorry to be the bearer of bad news btw). With the wind switching to a more northerly direction tomorrow (thanks to a powerful coastal storm) it will certainly be cold enough for snow as the temp drops from around 3 degrees in the morning to minus 3 tomorrow night. While the evening temperature is more favourable for a few flakes I thought I'd show you what our "FutureCast" expects tomorrow morning. That blue stuff...well that's snow. Our ADONIS forecast model has Peterborough sitting right on the rain snow line early tomorrow morning. So will we actually see snow? That all depends on the temperature. If we are indeed sitting at 3 or 4 degrees tomorrow morning what we'll likely get is just a few rain showers with some possible mixed precipitation (a few flakes mixed in with some rain) but if we're even slightly below the expected overnight low, then a few flurries are possible. What ends up falling depends on just how cold it gets tonight. As for my call, I'd put my money on a few rain showers throughout the day changing to flurries tomorrow night. I wouldn't put a lot of money on though as we're right on the threshold for either rain or snow. As for Haliburton, Bancroft and communities to the north...I think you will see a few flurries starting tomorrow morning and continuing throughout the day.

Now that's more like it!

2010-11-03T16:59:00.005-04:00

10 degrees! 10!!! As the title of the blog says: "now that's more like it!" We started out the day at -7 and, thanks to a southerly push of warm air ahead of an approaching cold front (see the image above) we gained 17 degrees by 2pm. Even though this frontal passage will also bring a few showers to the region, the cloud cover will at least trap in some of that heat we gained today resulting in a very mild overnight across the Kawarthas. How mild? We'll likely hover around the freezing mark tonight (hopefully above it) which is a heck of a lot better than the -7 we "enjoyed" last night.

Happy Halloween!

2010-10-29T16:45:00.008-04:00

I thought I'd do something a little different tonight on Newswatch...seeing as how it's the Halloween weekend and all. Instead of a "9-2-5 Forecast" I thought I'd breakdown Halloween night and what you can expect on Sunday. Above is my "Trick-Or-Treat" forecast to let you know just what to expect while your escorting the kids around town Sunday night. The conditions look pretty nice (partly cloudy) but it will be on the cool side so be sure to put a jacket under their costume. Oh...and I recieved more Halloween pet pics by the way so here's one more...

The pic above comes from Melissa showing off her Sheltie named Douglas. Doglas is dressed as Captain "Doug" Sparrow from the Pirates movies. The ladies may disagree but I think "Captain Doug" gives Johnny Depp a run for his money. Happy Halloween!

As Promised...

2010-10-28T16:31:00.006-04:00

I made a promise this week to show off a few of your Halloween pictures on CHEX TV and on the blog. Every holiday I ask for fun pictures and the ones I get always seem to have one thing in common...pets in costumes! It never fails, but that's okay. I'm an animal lover to! So, as promised, here are a few Halloween pet pictures that have made their way into my inbox...you may even see a few of these on CHEX.

This first pic comes from Chimo and no that's not just any ordinary skunk! It's the scary "Skunk Shih Tzu" that patrols his property every Halloween.

This next picture showcases a few "Halloween Pugs" courtesy of Kerri, one of our loyal CHEX viewers.

Here's a pic from Kim MacMillan of her cat Jeffery ready to celebrate Halloween. Hmmm...I wonder if he plays Quidditch? Please keep sending your pictures to me at jscotland@chextv.com and I'll show as many of them as I can on TV or here on the blog. I also have a special Halloween forecast for you tomorrow (both online and on Newswatch) that will breakdown what kind of weather you can expect while you're out with the kiddies on Halloween night. Think of it as a "9-2-5" forecast for the 6pm-9pm hours for Sunday night. Check back here tomorrow for your special Halloween forecast!

"Weather Bomb"

2010-10-26T16:34:00.007-04:00

Are you ready for the weather bomb? That's a term you've likely heard a lot today as a very powerful storm approaches. So...what the heck is a "weather bomb?" A weather bomb is the meteorological term that describes a rapid drop in pressure over a 24 hour period. Meteorologists measure pressure in millibars and for a storm to be considered a weather bomb a region would need to experience a 24mb drop in pressure over 24 hours (or 1mb/hr). So is this storm a "weather bomb?"

To determine in advance if our region will experience such a rapid drop in pressure we need to look at both the leading edge of the storm and the "central pressure" (or the area of lowest pressure). Since these storms generally move from west to east we'll look at the eastern edge of the storm compared to the center. (I grabbed the image above from a forecast model so this is not an actual observation...but it's pretty close to reality). Just ahead of the cold front the the pressure is around 1000mb compared to a central pressure of 956mb. That's a 44mb drop! While I'm not expecting to see a 44mb drop in pressure in 24 hours, considering just how low the central pressure of this storm is, a 24mb over 24 hours is very likely. So what does this all mean for Peterborough and the Kawarthas? The faster the pressure drops the faster the winds will be. This is a called a pressure gradient. When you go from an area of high pressure to an area of low pressure over very short distance you have what is called a "steep pressure gradient." The steeper the gradient...the faster the wind. Tonight we'll see a very steep gradient leading to sustained winds in excess of 40km/h and gusts in excess of 60 to 80 km/h. High winds with heavy rain and possible thundershowers can be expected this evening all thanks to what is know as a "weather bomb." While we're not talking about a hurricane here...tonight will still be very windy with the potential to be fairly active.

Go fly a kite!

2010-10-25T16:41:00.008-04:00

Please ignore the title of this blog. That was my lame attempt at humour...tomorrow will not be a very good day for kite flying. High winds will likely lead to the kite "flying you" and, with a good chance of some late day thunderstorm activity, electrocution is another possibility. So just how windy is it going to be? Looking at the latest forecast models (see above), sustained winds ahead of that system will likely be in the range of 20-30km/h and if that's not enough for you...

Just wait! As the day progresses (and the "low"approaches) the wind will continue to pick up speed and switch from a a southeasterly to a more southerly direction. This southerly push of wind, just ahead of a cold front, could see gusts in excess of 60 to 70km/h. Some localized wind gusts, depending on topography, may even be in excess of that. As you can see in the image above (from our CHEX TV ADONIS forecast model) by 8pm we can expect very blustery conditions and rain. Later in the evening, as the cold front passes, a thunderstorm is possible before the wind changes to a westerly direction and begins to "die down" through the overnight hours. So what does this mean for our region? After a somewhat sunny start to the day I expect the clouds to build and the wind to pick up during the afternoon. I then expect a wet and windy evening with possible thundershowers. A few Power outages are possible and a big clean-up is ahead for our local political candidates. Today is election day but if the municipal candidates procrastinate in collecting their election signs...well that wind will leave quite a mess to clean up on Wednesday morning.

Do not adjust your monitor.

2010-10-22T16:56:00.005-04:00

Hmmm...what is that white stuff on the hood of that car? Is it dust? Dirt? Dandruff? Nope. It's snow. Lisa tweeted me this pic of her car this morning in Pontypool. It was -1 in Pontypool this morning with light precipitation. The result? Snow. Even though it is still too early to "stick," I always get a few concerned emails from folks who are shocked to see snow this early. As much as it pains me to say it...this isn't early. Snow in October is common for our region and all it takes is a cool, dry northwesterly flow of wind to draw in some moisture from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These lake effect snow bands usually stay southwest of Peterborough (as was the case today...although we did see a few flakes) but Pontypool is right in their path when the wind is out of the northwest. Barrie saw over 5cm of accumulation this morning and snow fell as far south as Oshawa. Thanks for sending in this great image Lisa. I plan on saving it so that I can look at in January. While the picture strikes fear in the hearts of Canadians now...this same image will produce a few laughs after a mid-January snowstorm. Love it or hate it...winter is coming.

"I'll huff and I'll puff..."

2010-10-21T17:35:00.004-04:00

I want to thank Debra from Havelock for sending in the above picture. This is what her temporary garage looked like this morning after a big gust of wind blew through the region shortly before 10pm. These tent-like "car ports" are very durable and are weighed down to endure windy conditions. Last night's windy weather, however, was apparently too much for this shelter (as well as a swing set and some yard furniture) to handle. Debra actually sent me an email last night to ask if a tornado blew through Havelock last night. She described the wind as sounding like a freight train. After looking at some radar imagery from last night and the mess left in her yard this morning, I think that this was likely just a powerful gust of wind, probably in excess of 60-70 km/h. Here in Peterborough we dealt with sustained gusts in excess of 50 km/h yesterday followedby gusts over 40 km/h today. With sustained winds in excess of 30 km/h I would not surprise if a few localized wind gusts exceeded 60 km/h. Last night we were dealing with the passage of a cold front which can draw in some very powerful southwesterly winds and I think the above image is evidence of that. So will we be dealing with more windy weather tomorrow? Well, although still cool, tomorrow looks to be a little breezy...but not nearly as windy as the past two days.

Bundle Up!

2010-10-20T18:01:00.004-04:00

Well today was a windy day to say the least. Wind gusts in excess of 50 km/h were a common occurrence with sustained winds over 30 km/h. Tomorrow promises to be another windy one but with one BIG difference...wind direction. Today we saw high southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front but after that front passes tonight (bringing showers and possible thundershowers) the wind will shift to a more northwesterly flow. This will push in some cold, arctic air from the north which will cool us down big time. Hopefully you took advantage of today's 14 degree high because tomorrow we'll likely top out at 6 or 7 degrees. Bundle up!

Another "Mixed Bag"

2010-10-19T16:35:00.003-04:00

Wow...Mother Nature was really undecided today. We saw a little bit of everything! From showers, to drizzle, to sunshine to clouds then back to showers, etc. This is the kind of weather that allows me to use my favourite "all encompassing" weather term: the "mixed bag." Looking at the above image...I'll get to use it again tomorrow as another low pressure center moves in.

Tomorrow we'll see a partly sunny start to the day before rain as another area of low pressure looks to slide north of the region. A southwesterly flow of wind ahead of a cold front should warm us up to 14 or 15 degrees (seasonal average is 12 btw) but by 6pm (as you can see above) that front will be on our doorstep and we'll likely see showers just ahead of the frontal boundary.

Some moderate rain can be expected as the front passes tomorrow evening and we may even experience some mild thunderstorm activity. After the front passes we'll be back to generally cloudy conditions with the chance for maybe a shower or two on Thursday. The biggest change, however, will be the temperature. With a more northerly flow of wind expected, Thursday promises to be cool with a high of only 7 or 8 degrees. Be sure to wear a sweater under that rain jacket.

Nicer weather ahead...I promise.

2010-10-15T14:26:00.005-04:00

Today was another "messy" weather day but it wasn't rain that had folks complaining (like yesterday)...it was the wind. Looking at the GFS image above you can see just how windy it was today. Pinched between an area of high pressure to the west and that Nor'Easter to the east we dealt with wind gusts nearing 50 km/h. Over this "messy" two day stretch we've dealt with cold, blustery winds and over 20mm of rain. Are you tired of the wind and rain yet? Good news, that low continues to move east and an area of high pressure should make for a nice one tomorrow...

Here's a GFS shot for tomorrow (I've removed the wind barbs so it looks less jumbled). As you can see, that Nor'Easter is well out of our region and we look to be firmly under the influence of high pressure. While it promises to be sunny and calm across the Kawarthas, Atlantic Canada will still be dealing with that powerful low which will bring over 40mm of rain to some communities and pack sustained winds of 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 80km/h! So while the last two days may have seemed miserable here in Peterborough...just think of our friends to the east and what they'll be dealing with tonight and tomorrow. As for that cold front just west of us tomorrow (above image), I'm not too concerned. It may result in some cloudier conditions than we'd like to see on a Sunday and a little rain (if any) but, on the whole, the weekend is looking pretty good.

"All good things..."

2010-10-13T14:27:00.005-04:00

Hopefully you enjoyed today's sunny start as the day looks to wrap up in a very different fashion. This morning, although chilly at -3 degrees, saw yet another sunny start...something we've seen a lot of lately. The Thanksgiving long weekend was incredible weather wise and this morning's sunshine was a great way to cap off a very nice stretch of weather. Unfortunately all good things must come to an end. As you can see from the latest NAM run (above), that area of high pressure responsible for the recent sunshine is making an exit today. Cloud cover continues to develop ahead of that front even as I write this blog. This front will likely result in overcast conditions and a few showers this evening. Ironically, the cloud cover this "cold" front is responsible for will at least give us a much more mild overnight low. A nice layer of cloud cover is like throwing a thick blanket on the bed as it literally traps in the heat gained during the day. Tonight's low of +6 degrees is at least one silver lining to the wet weather ahead over the next few days.

2010-10-13T14:25:00.000-04:00

Giving thanks to Ma' Nature!

2010-10-08T18:04:00.006-04:00

If the higher prices at the pumps or the extra police cruisers on our roads didn't already tip you off...this weekend is indeed a long weekend. So how about the weather? Thanksgiving weekend is always a gamble when it comes to the weather simply because fall is a transitional season. During fall, warm air is in a constant battle with the cold polar air that is advancing from the north. The weather changes dramatically with every swing of the jet stream...but that doesn't look to be the case this long weekend. Looking at the latest NAM forecast model run above, the weather this weekend will be "brought to you by the "etter H" as a nice, stable area of high pressure settles in for a few days. So how long will this "high" stick around?

Likely for the entire long weekend and beyond. As you can see above, I'm not forecasting any rain until next Wednesay, although Thanksgiving Monday could be a bit cloudy at times, I expect lots of sunshine for two of the three days. Aside from a chilly overnight (-2 degrees) Saturday into Sunday, the weekend is looking almost perfect! On behalf of everyone here at CHEX I wish you all the best this Thanksgiving. Let's all enjoy a safe and happy holiday!

"Mind The Gap"

2010-10-06T16:56:00.011-04:00

Well...I'm back! Sorry for the lack of blog posts recently. I apologize for the "gap" between my last post and this one as I've been overseas for the last few weeks. ("Mind the gap" is the automated phrase one hears when boarding a train in the U.K. by the way). For the last few weeks my wife and I have been enjoying a whirlwind tour of the U.K. visiting much of England and southern Scotland. Here's a pic of Kate and me in London in front of Tower Bridge...

Our trip started in London two weeks ago when we flew into Gatwick Airport. After a 7 hour flight, we spent the next two hours negotiating London rail (including a busy rush hour tube ride) to King's Cross rail station where we boarded a train to Scotland to spend the next four days with Kate's aunt and uncle...in fact, we stayed with family the entire time. (It pays to have a wife who was born in England). We walked the Royal Mile, toured Edinburgh Castle, saw Abbotsford (the home of Sir Walter Scott), visited a real whiskey distillery, dipped our feet in the North Sea and toured countless other sites. Here's a great pic of our visit to Melrose Abbey...

After four days in Scotland it was off to the "heart of the empire" (stopping by Hadrian's Wall on the way) where we visited more of Kate's aunts, uncles and cousins who were all very great to take us in. (I apologize for the lack of names but I met so much of Kate's family it would be impossible to name them all without forgetting someone and I don't want to be rude). While there, we toured the Cotswolds, Blenheim Palace, Oxford University, Stratford, Warwick Castle and a ton of other amazing places. Here's a pic of Kate and I at the incredible Warwick Castle...

Finally, it was back to London for 3 days and two nights at Kate's cousin Oliver's "flat." We walked Millenium Bridge, toured the Tower of London, Tower Bridge, the V&A Museum, Hyde Park and of course we saw Big Ben...

All in all it was an amazing two weeks full of adventure. We saw over twenty castles, palaces, manors, museums (oh...and countless pubs) and truly experienced what it's like to not only visit, but live in another part of the world. As a meteorologist in training it would be wrong of me to not touch on the weather...not good. It rained for much of the trip and we saw very little sunshine. I guess that's life in a maritime climate. Oh well. Bad weather aside, our journey was an experience of a lifetime and I have to send out a big THANK YOU to all of Kate's family for taking us in and showing us what Scotland and England have to offer. I also have to say thanks to Jamie for doing such a great job filling in for me while I was away. It was a great trip but it does feel good to be home and back on CHEX TV.

Rain tomorrow? Oh yeah.

2010-09-15T17:48:00.005-04:00

Hopefully you took the time to enjoy today's sunny weather. Although cool, this afternoon was pretty nice with more sun than cloud. Looking at the image above...tomorrow looks to be a different story. This is from the latest ADONIS forecast model run for 8am tomorrow morning. As for the timing of tomorrow's rain, I'm pretty confident in this run's prediction. A few "sprinkles" in the overnight are possible with the first few bands of rain pushing in around 8am.
Between noon and 2pm (as you can see above) this model is calling for some very intense rain with possible thunderstorm activity. Keep in mind this is "future radar" and not an actual radar image that we're looking at here. Purple indicates intense weather on a radar image (anything above 60-65 dBZ for you weather nerds). This can mean very heavy rain, thundershowers and even hail. While I do not expect anything this severe tomorrow (most of that "purple stuff is still west of the city in this image) I do think that 10-20mm of rain could fall in a very short amount of time. While we're not talking about a flood situation with these amounts, some pooling of water on the roads is possible durning the "lunch rush" tomorrow which could make for a hectic commute around town.
Luckily for us, this system looks to move through the region at a quick pace. By tomorrow evening that "low" should be making its way to the east of our region by 8pm and I expect a clearing trend tomorrow night into Friday. All in all, as much as 25mm of rain is possible...but hopefully rainfall totals end up on the low end as our city's infrastructure is not always "100% effective" on handling a lot of rain in a short amount of time.

Tomorrow's weather? Not bad.

2010-09-14T16:42:00.005-04:00

As the rollercoaster ride of weather continues to roll on, I thought I'd throw up a blog today to make some sense of tomorrow. Lately "Ma' Nature" has been throwing a bit of everything our way. Some clouds, some rain, some sunshine then back to clouds...today is a good example of this...although that high of 19 degrees was pretty nice. As for tomorrow, I expect some decent weather overall. The image above is from our FutureCast (ADONIS forecast model) and shows the slight chance of some light rain tomorrow morning as that west/northwesterly wind continues to push in moisture leeward of Georgian Bay. I don't expect too much (if any) moisture to make it this far east, but if we do see any it will likely be prior to 8am.
Rolling the ADONIS model ahead a few hours and things look good for the afternoon. An area of high pressure pushes in from the west and cleans things up. By the dinner hour we'll be firmly under the influence of that "high" but a low pressure centre will be on our region's "doorstep" that I expect will bring a few showers into the overnight hours with some rain into Thursday. Also, with the jet stream just south of us, we can expect cooler than normal tempertures to prevail over the next few days.

Looooooooong Range Forecast

2010-09-10T17:06:00.006-04:00

Wow! It's Friday already! I don't know what's better...heading into a long weekend or the short week that follows. In this case, with last weekend's crummy weather, the short work week definitely wins. Today is not just any Friday, today is special. Very special! Today is the day that my job security is put into question. The Famer's Almanac releases there annual forecast today. Annual? How can I compete with that? I only look ahead 7 days and these folks forecast a year in advance. Let's take a look at their winter forecast...The Farmer's Almanac is calling for "mild and wet" weather for the Yukon, BC and western alberta. They expect "average temperatures and snowfall" for the prairies and north into the territories. Ontario will be "cold and snowy" with "bitterly cold" temperatures heading east through Quebec into New Brunswick and Newfoundland. Good news for folks living in Labrador...you'll only be dealing with "very cold" as opposed to the "bitterly cold" temps for the rest of Atlantic Canada. Snowfall will also be "average" for most of eastern Canada. Whether you believe in the Farmer's Almanac or not...you have to give them credit for trying. Forecasting a year in advance can't be easy, just look at how often my 7 day forecast is...um...less than 100% accurate. Happy Friday!

It's not that bad...really!

2010-09-08T17:35:00.005-04:00

First off...sorry for the lack of blog posts this week. I was off this Monday for Labour Day and yesterday, um...well I was still recovering from the long weekend. Wet weather aside, I had a great weekend at the cottage and hopefully you made the best of it as well. With the cold and wet long weekend behind us, let's look ahead to this weekend. Looking at the extended forecast above, after another cool and possibly damp one tomorrow, we'll start to clear up nicely for Friday and Saturday and even warm back up to seasonal values. Not bad. As for Sunday...

The above image is from the latest GFS forecast model run. Both the GFS and North American models show some wet weather for Sunday. The North American model has the rain arriving just ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon but the GFS has that same front arriving later in the day. So will Sunday be a wash out? Well it is only Wednesday but, looking at the latest data, I think a sunny start to the day is possible with increased cloudiness in the afternoon and a few showers by Sunday evening. With temps at least back in the 20's that's not a bad forecast at all even with the rain.

The Long Weekend & Earl

2010-09-03T14:44:00.010-04:00

We'll start with the Kawarthas and the question everyone is asking me: "are we going to see any rain this weekend?" My answer...yes. I do expect a few showers both Saturday and Sunday (possibly Monday) but don't blame the weatherman. Blame Earl. Looking at the latest North American Model for tomorrow you can see Earl hammering Atlantic Canada and that sets up and big easterly push of wind just ahead of Earl's track. That disturbance either pushes or favours redevelopment of that "low" (that is moving northeast of us now) west of where it should be this time tomorrow. That area of low pressure appears to be "bumped" by Earl in a westerly direction which sets us up for some rain this weekend.
In addition to the instability normally associated with a low pressure centre, we're also likely to see some lake enhanced precipitation...similar to lake effect snow (only with rain). With that "low" now sitting to the northeast and an area of high pressure to the southwest, I expect a west/northwesterly flow of wind that will pull in some moisture leeward of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Now before you get too down on the weekend, I don't expect a washout. Most of that moisture will not make the trip this far east, so a steady rain isn't likely. Expect a few showers dropping 5-10mm of rain (at most) over both days. Some sunny breaks can also be expected...but it will be a very cool weekend across the region.
Now let's talk Earl. Our weekend forecast looks "peachy" compared to parts of Atlantic Canada as Earl continues to push north. The latest Canadian Hurricane Centre track (see above) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Cat 1 Hurricane with wind in excess of 119 km/h Saturday Morning. The storm then impacts P.E.I. before turning north over eastern Quebec and into Labrador.
The National Hurricane Center (U.S.) has the storm hitting western Nova Scotia as a Tropical Storm (no longer a hurricane). The NHC's track differs with the storm, after hitting the Bay of Fundy and rolling into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, turning east affecting eastern Labrador and western Newfoundland along the Straight of Belle Isle. Either way, this storm looks pretty bad for much of Atlantic Canada. Graham Hart is in Nova Scotia and will join us by phone on Tuesday for a wrap on Hurricane Earl.

Hey Peterborough...it's been awhile.

2010-09-02T14:08:00.008-04:00

Over the last few days both my blog and my Twitter feed have been dominated by one topic...Earl. So I thought I'd bring the focus back to Peterborough and the Kawarthas and give you a breakdown on what is in store for tomorrow. If you're like me, and are not a fan of the heat, I have some good news for you...a cold front is on the way. I expect things to cool down in a big way tomorrow after that front pushes through in the afternoon. The above image is from the ADONIS forecast model and has that front arriving some time between 2-4pm.

By 8pm the cold front will be well to the east of us but there is still alot of instability to the west of the frontal boundary. That wraparound precipitation will likely occur into Saturday (boo) but it's still only Thursday so don't start planning to hang the weatherman just yet. I will touch on Earl quickly here as he does make quite a dramatic appearence in the above image. This model has that cold front still a good distance away from Earl so any hope of that front either weakening (shear) or deflecting Earl in any way is pretty slim.

Back to Peterborough now, here's your 9-2-5 forecast tomorrow. This board really illustrates the cool down we can expect over the next 24 hours. Our daytime high tomorrow will likely occur around 1pm as a southerly push of wind just ahead of that front continues to pump in warm, humid air. The front then "collides" with that muggy air around 2pm which could bring as much as 10-15mm of rain and may even spark up some thunderstorm activity. By 5pm we should start to see some clearing but a light shower is still possible and the temperature will have dropped between 3 to 4 degrees. In short, tomorrow will see a muggy start, a rainy (possibly active) afternoon and a considerably cooler evening.

A Very Looooong Weekend!

2010-09-01T15:09:00.010-04:00

With the long weekend approaching things are not looking good for Atlantic Canada. The image above is the latest thermal satellite imagery of Hurricane Earl from the Canadian Hurricane Centre. Earl is continuing to turn north as a powerful category 3 hurricane. While it is still too early for the CHC to start issuing warnings for coastal communities in Canada, the National Hurricane Center has been busy doing just that south of the border for the shores of North Carolina and Virginia north toward Maryland and Delaware.

So where will Earl make landfall? You have to take the above image with a grain of salt as we are still days away but the CHC is very concerned that Earl will make a direct hit with Nova Scotia on Saturday. The above image is a composite of various hurricane models and the “cone of uncertainty” has this cyclone landing anywhere from Maine to eastern Nova Scotia as a category 1 hurricane with winds in excess of 119 km/h. Earl will quickly weaken over land but could still affect P.E.I. as a tropical storm or depression with wind speeds ranging from 50-100km/h before bringing heavy rain and high winds to Labrador and western Newfoundland. Why so powerful? You can thank warmer than normal sea surface temperatures around Nova Scotia. Although the water there is no longer warm enough to favour storm development (cooler than 26.5 degrees), it's still warm enough for this storm to maintain hurricane strength for some time.

When does Earl make landfall? That’s another tricky question to answer at the moment as we’re not 100% sure as to where he’ll land. It all depends on where Earl actually lands but, assuming he does strike Nova Scotia, the NHC expects Earl to make landfall early Saturday morning. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm, I think we can be certain that this could be a very looong weekend for folks living in Atlantic Canada.

The Great "Divide"

2010-08-31T15:10:00.003-04:00

As I write this blog (in my lovely air conditioned "Weather Centre") it is 31 degrees feeling like 38 in Peterborough. Hot! It's hard to believe that tomorrow is the first day of September. With September 1st on our doorstep and the Labour Day weekend just days away, I thought I'd show you what's in store for the long weekend. The image above really illustrates the "great divide" across Canada. Now I'm not talking about a political or linguistic divide, but a major contrast in temperatures from east to west. These are current temperatures from around 3pm EST today. Peterborough is more than twice as warm as Regina! There was even frost in Alberta this morning! Well for those of you who are not a fan of 30 plus degree weather...relief is in sight. That cool air is pushing east with the cold front currently slicing through northwestern Ontario. That airmass will warm up a bit before arriving, but I expect temperures to top out in the high teens (maybe 20 degrees) for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will likely be "flirting" with the single digits. Frost? No...but a lot cooler than today's hot and humid weather.

Tropic Thunder!

2010-08-30T14:55:00.003-04:00

With the lack of exciting weather in our region I thought I’d bring you up to speed on what’s happening in the tropics. First we’ll start with Danielle. As I write this Danielle is still a category 1 hurricane sending large waves toward Newfoundland. That’s about all she’ll be able to do though as, luckily for folks living in the Maritimes, Danielle never amounted to more than a “fish storm” (a storm that affects only fish…and boats I guess). Earl…well Earl is a different story. Earl is now a category 3 storm grazing by the Lesser Antilles with winds in excess of 200 km/h. Luckily for those living in the Dominican Republic, and even luckier for those living in Haiti (many still in tents), Earl should turn north just before Puerto Rico and is currently dropping a serious amount of rain on residents there. Earl will steer north along the western edge of the “Bermuda High” and intensify to a powerful category 4 storm as it enters the warm Gulf Stream current. Earl will then push north along the east coast of the U.S. and will likely stay offshore until just north of Virginia. This will still mean powerful waves and deadly riptides along the shores from Florida extending to the Carolinas…not good. The current track shows potential landfall from the northern tier of Virginia through to the Maritimes with a possible direct hit on Nova Scotia as a category 1 hurricane by Saturday…also not good. So I’ll be keeping you updated on Earl as the week progresses and I’ve posted his latest track above. Lastly there is another storm developing out in the Atlantic that the NOAA is 90% sure will develop into a tropical storm. It is still way too early for a track on this one but I’ll keep an eye on it. Although warm, things are at least quiet in the Kawarthas. As for the tropics…well, quiet isn’t the first word that comes to mind. The Atlantic hurricane season is really starting to heat up.

A Very "Special" Weather Statement

2010-08-27T18:03:00.007-04:00

"A glorious conclusion to a sunny warm summer..." That is the first line from a special weather statement issued for Ontario by Envrionment Canada earlier today and I couldn't agree more. Ususally when Environment Canada issues these statements they have to do with hail, heavy rain, high humidex values, etc. That was definitely not the case with today's release. This weekend will indeed be sunny and warm so I thought I'd share something with you that is sure to put a smile on your face. Keep in mind that things can change but, as of now, things are looking really good. Here's today's "Extended Forecast." Enjoy!

2 Birds 1 Stone. (No birds harmed in the writing of this blog).

2010-08-26T18:06:00.011-04:00

This weekend looks to be a VERY busy one in Peterborough. There are a countless number of events taking place and they're all hoping for a great forecast. Good news! The weekend looks perfect! Two of the bigger events on the agenda are the Canadian Wakeboard Open (which kicks off tomorrow in Beavermead Park) and the final Little Lake Musicfest concert of the summer on Saturday night in Del Crary Park. That concert features former Monkee Davy Jones. I'll be at both and actually introducing Jones so a rain free weekend is key. (My popularity soars with great weather...sad, but true). A nice ridge of high pressure is pushing in from the west that will make for another warm and sunny weekend as summer draws to a close. Daytime highs should be close to 30 by Sunday and, with clear nights also expected, overnight temps should be comfortable. In addition to keeping the Kawarthas rain free, that same area of high pressure should also keep Hurricane Danielle safely offshore preventing some nasty weather for folks living along the coast and in the maritimes. You've gotta love that high!

My Name is Earl?

2010-08-25T13:31:00.010-04:00

With a lack of weather expected in our region for the next week (after that frontal passage later today) I'll probably be spending a lot more time talking about tropical storms for the next little while...and Mother Nature is really providing a lot of content. Summer may be winding down but the Atlantic hurricane season is just starting to heat up and you'll likely be hearing the name Danielle a whole bunch over the weekend. After becoming a little disorganized and being downgraded to tropical storm status, Danielle is once again a category 1 hurricane and is continuing to push west. The latest models show this storm getting picked up by the "Bermuda High" (a semi-permanent area of high pressure that sits out in the Atlantic east of Florida) which will eventually steer this storm along a more northerly track up the east coast...although safely offshore. Danielle will likely pass just east of Bermuda and later regain strength in the relatively warm water of the "Gulf Stream." This could be bad for Newfoundland as some of the models show this storm pushing dangerously close to "The Rock." The image above is where Danielle is expected to be by Monday morning so I'll be keeping tabs on the latest data as she continues her trek. I'll also be keeping an eye on another storm (TD7) continuing to strenghten out in the Atlantic that will likely develop into a tropical storm named Earl later today.

Loving this image!

2010-08-19T16:14:00.007-04:00

I thought you'd enjoy this image taken from our CHEX TV "Tower Cam" this afternoon. This is a shot looking almost due south around 1:45pm. The front is moving in from the west and you can still see blue sky to the east. It's a great example of how abruptly the weather can change as a cold front approaches. A cold front literally "wedges" itself under warm air already in place often creating a line of powerful storms. When you see cloud development like this it usually means thunderstorm activity is imminent and seeking shelter is a good idea. A big thanks to our technical director Dave Dundas for this awesome shot.

A wet weekend? Not entirely.

2010-08-18T14:44:00.008-04:00

This morning we woke up to a big change in the weekend forecast. What looked to be another sunny summer weekend was no longer looking very sunnyat all. Our local radio morning shows were suddenly talking about a wet weekend ahead...not good. Well it's not all bad. Yesterday on Newswatch I mentioned the possiblility of some rain on Sunday...well, looking at the latest forecast models, that now looks to be a probability. (Keep in mind it is only Wednesday and things could change for the better). So Sunday looks to be a bit wet. Rainy Sundays can be very relaxing. As for Saturday, I'm not convinced it'll be a wash out. Your favourite morning radio show probably includes a weather report issued by Environment Canada and they are calling for cloudy and wet weather for both Saturday and Sunday. I'm going to stray from our National Weather Service a little bit as I'm more optimistic about Saturday. Looking at the latest American and North American forecast models, Saturday doesn't look all that bad. The image above is from the latest GFS run and it puts that low arriving late Saturday into Sunday. There's a good chance we may see no rain at all on Saturday. Wednesday is usually the day that I start to feel confident about the weekend forecast, but there is still plenty of time for these models to change. Hopefully they change for the better.

It was worth it!

2010-08-16T16:52:00.005-04:00

In the immortal words of April Wine "ooooh what a night!" Talk about an active wrap to the weekend. With all of that heat and humidity in place it was no surprise at all that an approaching cold front would spell trouble. That trouble came in the form of heavy showers, hail, thunder and lightning. At one point our region was under a tornado warning which, luckily, did not come to fruition. In the end though...it was worth it. That cold front pushed all of that muggy, humid air out of the region and has set us up for some very favourable weather for the little while. We may see a few cloudy periods tomorrow but relatively sunny conditions can be expected with seasonal temperatures and lower humidity levels for the next few days. Enjoy!

Loving That High!

2010-08-13T18:36:00.005-04:00

This weekend looks to be a busy one in Peterborough with the Peterborough Ex on both days at Morrow Park, "Our Fest" (in Support of Our Space) on this Saturday at Nicholls Oval and the 30th anniversary celebration of the Peterborough City Soccer Association set to take place this Sunday at Eastgate Soccer Park. While I can't promise a rain free Sunday, tomorrow is at least looking promising. That area of high pressure to the east of us is continuing to block the track of that "low" to the west. Does this mean no rain for Saturday? Not entirely...but most of the day looks to stay dry. Expect a somewhat sunny start to your Saturday with increasing cloudiness into the afternoon and a chance of showers (maybe a thunderstorm) late day. As for Sunday...there is a good chance of rain but I don't expect a wash out (knock on wood). Have a great weekend!

Will We See The Perseids?

2010-08-12T14:13:00.006-04:00

Will we see the Perseids? There's a question I've been asked quite a lot over the last few days. My answer? Yes. If you can get away from the city lights you will ikely see dozens of "shooting stars" which is both an unfortunate and incorrect term. The Perseids are, of course, not stars but are meteors. They are litterally the remnants of the comet Swift-Tuttle whose orbit intersects Earth's. As we pass through the comet's orbit, this debris enters our atmosphere and burns up in a dazzling display of light that is a treat to watch on a clear night. A clear night, however, is not the only caveat to see the peak of this meteor shower. The constellation Perseus must also be visible and not hidden below the horizon . The image above (courtesy of NASA) is shaded red where tonight's peak will not be visible. As you can see, most of the planet will be able to enjoy tonight's show pending clear conditions and I think the night sky will be mainly clear for tonight. As for the best time to keep an eye to the sky...between midnight and 4am. If your outside between these times you can expect to see as many as 50 to 100 meteors an hour. Very cool!

What the heck was that?

2010-08-09T13:56:00.021-04:00

Sunday, for the most part, was a typical rainy summer day...I did say for the most part right? That was not the case for Rob Williams and his family who were spending the weekend at their cottage north of Peterborough on Mississauga Lake. Just check out the pictures sent in from Rob's son Scott below...

Scary! I forwarded these pictures on to Peter Kimbell at Environment Canada as the family was concerned that this may have been a tornado. Peter was kind enough to check some radar imagery from around that time (6:30pm) and it does not look like a tornado was responsible. That is not to say the wind that caused this damage wasn't dangerous. After speaking with Rob for some time today it sounds as though all of the trees downed appeared to fall in generally the same direction. He also told me that some of these trees were quite large and appeared healthy before being blown over. So what caused the damage? It sounds as if this was likely the result of a downburst or microburst that followed a very heavy downpour. A microburst is a very localized column of heavy, sinking air that produces damaging "straight line" winds that can move with great velocity. (Straight line as in no spinning). Tornadoes spin and tend to leave a chatoic mess in their wake with trees falling and landing in various directions. Bursts tend to push trees down in roughly the same direction which is the same kind of damage described by Rob. I'm happy to tell you that this burst resulted in no injuries to cottagers in the area...just some property damage. For a description of what a downburst or microburst is see the video below that i put together a little while ago.

Sunday Rain? Maybe.

2010-08-06T16:31:00.005-04:00

After looking at the latest forecast model runs I thought I'd throw this image up on the blog. The image above is from the latest North American model and it does show possible rain on Sunday. The latest GFS run also shows a chance for rain on Monday as well. I don't expect a washout this weekend but I do think that Environment Canada's weekend forecast is a little too optimistic. That's not a shot at Environment Canada by the way, they do a great job and their data makes my job possible. Consider this forecast a "second opinion." Tonight looks to be clear and cool. Tomorrow I expect a sunny start with cloudy periods developing in the afternoon. As for Sunday...let's go with mainly cloudy with a chance of showers. Have a great weekend!

Did you see them? Ernie did.

2010-08-05T13:52:00.006-04:00

Did you see them? The Northern Lights? No? Well I didn't see them either so don't feel bad. I even made the trek up Armour Hill to escape the light pollution our fine city produces and still no luck. I wasn't the only one either. Armour Hill was packed full of cars facing the northern horizon hoping to see the famous waving curtain of green light. In the end I didn't see anything and left dissapointed...and I wasn't alone. The lights were barely visible in our region. They were dim and very low on the horizon but those who made the trip north of the city were treated a view of the Aurora Borealis. Ernie Silhanek snapped this image at around 11pm near Bobcaygeon on Tuesday night. The lights were not as brilliant as expected (which is why the image below appears dark and a little grainy) but, after fielding a few calls from dissapointed night sky watchers, here is proof that the lights were visible in our region. They just weren't as intense as the famous images we're used to seeing from Canada's far north.

Nature's Light Show

2010-08-03T17:09:00.011-04:00

This shot comes courtesy of NASA. I love NASA! This image is from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and shows the sun's northern hemisphere during the eruption of a solar flare on Sunday. What an amazing shot! Accoring to NASA this image's colour scheme displays temperatures ranging from 1 to 2 million degrees. (Kelvin Scale). Wow! Sunday's solar activity likely marks the start of a "solar maximum" (the last of which occurred in 2001) which can be bad for satellite and radio communications but great for natural light shows. The light show I'm talking about is of course Aurora Borealis, otherwise known as the northern lights. These mass ejections of plasma and solar particles interact with Earth's magnetic field as solar particles collide with the oxygen and nitrogen atoms in our atmosphere. These collisions can result in amazing displays of colour and light. This recent coronal mass ejection (CME) was aimed toward earth and those particles will likely have made the 93 million mile trip to Earth potentially giving us an amazing light show normally visible only in the far north. This means that tonight, if conditions are clear, a green (and hopefully red) lightshow may be seen as far south as the great lakes. Let's hope that things clear up this evening!

Looking Good!

2010-07-29T13:55:00.008-04:00

I just pulled the image above from the latest North American Model and added the surface features for tomorrow morning and...it's looking good! The weather that is (not my artwork). That area of high pressure is settling in nicely and that cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has blown out all of that sticky, humid air that was in place. Even though that front brought us some active weather yesterday afternoon, it was well worth it. Today we enjoyed cooler temperatures, lower dewpoints and a lot less humidity. I expect a similar day tomorrow (sunny with a few cloudy periods and cool) and the long weekend also looks promising. Now I am a little concerned about Sunday evening as one of the forecast models is showing a chance of showers late Sunday into Monday, but I'm still confident that the weekend will offer great weather. I'll keep you updated if the next forecast model run shows any potential for rain later tonight on Newswatch.

Rain tomorrow? Yep.

2010-07-27T17:03:00.005-04:00

The last couple of days have been great! Warm and sunny during the day followed by clear and cool nights. What a great combination! You may have noticed that it felt a little warmer stepping outside today compared to yesterday. It really wasn't much warmer but it was more humid. A southerly flow of wind delivered that added moisture and we'll continue to see the humidity rise into tomorrow ahead of a cold front...now that's a bad combination. You can see that cold front on the latest North American model run above. Whenever you have a cold front moving into a warm and humid area you have the potential for active weather. Does this mean we'll see a thunderstorm tomorrow? There's a chance...but no guarantee. I'm always concerned about approaching cold fronts after a sunny stretch but the models don't show anything too severe for our region. I expect a partly cloudy start to the day followed by showers starting early in the afternoon with 10-15mm of rain possible (likely only 5-10mm). As for a thunderstorm...the best chance for any activity would be mid-afternoon. We'll likely see things clear up by 9pm (hopefully earlier for Little Lake Music Fest) and the rest of the week looks great. Even though the there's no guarantee for active weather, be aware this same system did lead to a few tornado watches being issued in Northwestern Ontario. I'll keep you updated on CHEX and on Twitter tomorrow if Mother Nature decides to throw any "curve balls."

"Shear" Luck!

2010-07-23T16:49:00.005-04:00

Good news for the Gulf! Bonnie has now been downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. The reason? Wind shear. Tropical cyclones do not like wind...or at least winds that they don't create. While it's true that wind shear can favour the development of indivudal thunderstorms, this is not the case for cyclones which are a series of storms attempting to get organized. With winds coming from all different directions Bonnie is just unable to keep herself together and is losing steam fast. It is not likely that she will become a hurricane, but even as a weak strom, her current track (seen below) is cause for concern for those involved in the clean-up of all of that oil.

Sunday Looking Good!

2010-07-23T14:49:00.011-04:00

I have some good news and some bad news. What would you like first? The good news? Well the good news is that Sunday is looking promising. Yesterday on the blog (see below) I was talking about the potential for a Sunday rain maker. The above image is from the latest North American model and it shows a clearing trend into Sunday morning. We'll still see some rain on Sunday but mainly in the overnight hours. The bad news? Well the bad news is that there is still the chance for wet weather on Saturday. There's really no change in the latest model prediction compared to yesterday's run. As I pointed out here on the blog yesterday, Saturday is far from a washout with dry conditions expected for much of the day but showers and maybe a thunderstorm is possible. While the North American model calls for a late afternoon/early evening shower our own CHEX Futurecast puts the rain south of Peterborough with just the chance of a light shower around 8pm...so it's not all bad. So what's my call for tomorrow? I expect a generally cloudy day with some sunny breaks and a day that is bookended with a chance of showers. An early morning shower is possible as is some late day rain around the time the Little Lake Music Festival gets underway (which I'm hosting btw). As for thunderstorm activity, I'm not seeing anything frightening in the models but with tomorrow's expected high of 29 degreess coupled with high humidity levels I can see why Environment Canada is a little concerned.

Rain for Saturday? Really?

2010-07-22T13:55:00.014-04:00

This weekend (like all summer weekends in the Kawarthas) looks to be a busy one and a lot of what's going on depends on the weather. Everybody wants a good weekend forecast but this weekend is not without a few "blemishes." We'll start with tomorrow. There is a very good chance for rain tomorrow as an area of low pressure pushes in from the southwest. The latest forecast models put the low pressure center riding north of the region but there's a good chance of some frontal precipitation and generally overcast conditions. Our own CHEX FutureCast shows the potential for heavey rain tomorrow morning and possible thundershowers. As for Saturday...well there is hope.

Here's the latest North American forecast model run and it looks promising. There is a good chance for showers for part of Saturday but we look to at least get a break from the rain that afternoon as we'll be sitting between systems. I don't expect perfect conditions but the rain will likely have moved to the east of us Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately that second system (which I've labelled) moves in shortly after and on Sunday (at this point) it looks like we'll be dealing with some rain. It doesn't look to be a perfect weekend weatherwise, but it's far from a washout. If there are any changes I'll let you know.

Your 9-2-5 Forecast

2010-07-20T17:26:00.005-04:00

I haven't done this in a while but here we go. Once again, I've decided to post the 9-2-5 forecast here on the blog. Why don't I do it that often? The reason is that the 9-2-5 is really just a "rough estimate" of the day ahead. If forecast models were really that accurate I'd be out of a job. Luckily for me they're not and an hourly breakdown of the day is still very tough to nail down...but I love giving it a shot, so here we go. Expect increasing cloud cover tonight with a mix of sun and cloud early tomorrow morning. By 9am I expect very little sunshine with a slight chance of a shower. Late tomorrow morning I do expect rain and there is the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm by 3pm. By 5pm the rain should start to taper off and we may see some sunshine before 7pm. This is good news for anyone planning on attending the Little Lake Music Festival in Del Crary Park...although I'd bring the umbrella just in case. Keep in mind that our national weather service (Environment Canada) is calling for a 60% chance of showers so there is no guarantee for rain...but I do expect at least a shower or two.

The Strike!

2010-07-15T07:47:00.004-04:00

First of all, I'm sorry it took me so long to get this up on the blog. I was hoping to get it up yesterday but I was out of town for the day and then school got in the way last night and...I'll stop firing excuses at you now. Enjoy the video!

This is slow motion video (shot by Newswatch Videographer Steve Guthrie) of what is likely the lightning strike that destroyed the Woodarts building on Chemong Rd on Tuesday. The location, timing and intensity of the strike all fit with the start of the fire. Luckily no one was hurt so I can say this...what a great video! You can actually count the return strokes! This really illustrates the power of Mother Nature.

A Picture Worth 1,000 Words!

2010-07-13T16:21:00.009-04:00

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this one is worth that and more. A big thank you goes out to the Connell family for this AMAZING shot of a funnel cloud northwest of Omemee in the Downeyville area. An amazing shot but also scary as a funnel cloud is literally a tornado that has yet to "touch down." This was taken around 1pm and here is what the radar looked like around that time...

That cell just north of Peterborough is likely the same one that spawned the funnel cloud just 20 minutes before. This same line of activity hit the city's north end pretty hard. A powerful lightning strike lead to a fire which destroyed the Wood Arts building on Chemong Rd and high winds lead to a power outage affecting 1200 people in Smith Township. Newswatch Videogragher Steve Guthrie managed to capture what is likely the strike that caused the fire on video which I'll share with you tonight on Newswatch and post here on the blog a little later tonight. It wasn't just the wind and lightning that caused damage but the rain as well. The system moved through the region at a very slow rate and dumped a considerable amount of rain. (As I write this it is still raining to the north). This rain lead to some flooding in Bridgenorth and we'll have footage of that as well tonight at 6pm on Newswatch. An area of high pressure should clean things up (and calm things down) later this evening but there is still a chance for more activity. That threat diminishes though as the afternoon rolls on. What a day!

That's More Like It!

2010-07-09T16:48:00.008-04:00

24 degrees for a high...now that's more like it. The heat wave finally ended today as a cold front pushed through the region bringing with it some much needed rain. With all of the moist, humid air that was in place Environment Canada was a little concerned about the potential for very heavy rain. A rainfall warning was issued but the rain, although heavy at times, did not amount to a staggering figure. The rain was needed though and did its part in cleaning up the air that had become very polluted over the last few days. The never ending smog advisory was finally lifted today as all of that excess carbon has been flushed from the atmosphere and will most likely be end up as "rain dust" on your car. The most noticeable change associated with this frontal passage will be the "cool down." The thing you have to remember about cold fronts is that the term "cold" is relative. They should be called "relatively cold fronts." Temperatures to the west of that front are still above seasonal but are cooler than the 33 and 34 degree highs we've been subjected to over the last few days. Luckily, how hot it "feels" when you step outside and has more to do with the "dew point temperature" which look to drop in a big way.

The Dew Point is the temperature you have to lower a parcel of air to for dew to form or for 100% relative humidity to occur. The higher the dewpoint the more humid the air and the hotter it feels. Looking at the map above you can see the difference in dewpoint temperatures between Peterborough and Sudbury. Since the cold front moved through Sudbury well before Peterborough the humidity there was lowered and the dew point temperature was only 13.5 degrees (shortly before 5pm). Peterborough's dew point was an even 21 degrees. Although it was 27 degrees in Sudbury (compared to 23 at that time in Peterborough) it actually felt warmer here in the "Peter Patch." With the humidity it felt 32 here compared with 30 degrees in Sudbury despite the 4 degree difference with the actual temperature. It is the lack of humidity and lower dew point temperatures that we can really look forward to over the weekend...enjoy!

Heat Wave!

2010-07-07T14:30:00.003-04:00

I think this picture says it all. Andrea sent this picture in from Pandy Bear’s Bed & Breakfast in Fenelon Falls. It may look frightening but keep in mind that thermometer is likely a little off. Direct sunlight or even heat radiated from your home can affect a thermometer’s accuracy but with the humidity it at least felt that warm stepping out of the house. This has been a hot stretch of weather to say the least. The warm-up started on Saturday. After a cool Canada Day (Thursday) and a seasonal Friday we shot up to 29.7 degrees on Saturday afternoon. Saturday was followed by a 31 degree high on Sunday (30.8 degrees) and the hot streak continued from there. Even though the hot weather started on Saturday the “heat wave” did not officially start until Monday as Environment Canada defines a heat wave as three consecutive days in excess of 32 degrees. Monday’s high was 33 degrees as was Tuesday’s. With today’s high exceeding 32 degrees (with humidity feeling into the 40’s) what we have been suffering through can now “officially” be called a heat wave. A heat wave that does not look to end until Friday. Friday’s high is expected to top out in the low to mid twenties and some much needed rain is also expected. There is light at the end of this long, hot and muggy tunnel.

What is the Humidex?

2010-07-05T16:36:00.006-04:00

Today was a hot one! By 9am is was 29 degrees and by 3pm we topped out at 33 degrees. As hot as it was, the heat was not the big story today, it was the humidity. You may have heard me talking about a "humidex" value in the 40's today or that it actually feels over 44 degrees today (which it did). If you've ever asked yourself why does humidity make it feel warmer or "what the heck is the humidex?" Well, hopefully this video helps to answer those questions...

Mother Nature Loves Canada!

2010-06-30T17:57:00.007-04:00

I just had to throw this up on the blog as I couldn't wait until 6:30pm. Like a proud parent flaunting pictures of their kids, I just wanted to brag about the amzing weekend forecast. Whenever you see an "extended" or "long range" forecast, you have to take it with a grain of salt. (Especially the 7 Day Forecast). Mother Nature can always throw a curve ball but all of the forecast models seem to be in agreement about the weekend...and it looks great. Our own CHEX FutureCast shows the potential for a few more cloudy periods than we'd like to see tomorrow afternoon for Canada Day but, after a cool one tomorrow (and VERY cool tomorrow night), we warm up for Friday and Saturday and Sunday should be sunny and HOT. Although cool, Canada Day also scores a passing grade. So enjoy the time off tomorrow, the great weather and, on behalf of the CHEX team...Happy Canada Day!

A Wild One!

2010-06-30T14:04:00.027-04:00

As promised here are those pictures I mentioned on Newswatch yesterday from Monday's late afternoon storm. The high that day was near 30, the dewpoint was 22 degrees and with the humidex it felt 35-37 degrees. Whenever you have heat and abundent moisture (humidity) you have two of the three ingredients needed for severe weather. The last ingredient is a triggering mechanism and a weak cold front (in this case a trough) did push through the region and the result (in this case high winds and heavy rain) can be seen below.

The first two pics are from Norwood, the third is from Cavan (frightening cloud development) and the final image is from Havelock. Thanks to Katie, Jeff, Devon and an anomymous photographer for sending these images. Remember, you can always email me your pics to jscotland@chextv.com and I'll try feature them on CHEX Newswatch or here on the blog.

Whew!

2010-06-28T15:11:00.006-04:00

Although folks living near the Texas/Mexico border will be unhappy, many are breathing a sigh of relief along the gulf coast. Hurricanes can be devastating enough to coastal communities on their own let alone combining a super storm with one of the largest environmental disasters in history. This scenario is almost unimaginable and luckily this looks to be NOT the case with "Alex." Tropical Storm Alex is expected to develop into a category 2 hurricane as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is that the latest track (seen above) puts that storm well to the west of that giant oil slick from the Horizon deep water leak. (Please keep in mind that my oil slick drawing is a VERY rough estimate and not to scale). Even if the storm strays to the very edges of the Hurrican Center's cone of error...it is still likely to miss the oil. That's the good news. The bad news? This is only the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and more storms are likely to affect the gulf over the next few months.

0.5mm? That's it?

2010-06-24T22:49:00.006-04:00

June 23rd, 2010 will hence forth be known as "Wacky Wednesday." What a crazy day. The day started early for me as I arrived at our studios for an 8:30am shoot (of the "What's Happening" report) and my day did not end until well after midnight. Now the previous blog entry (below)covers the earthquake that originated out of the National Capital region, but what followed was a very busy night for forecasters and emergency responders across the province. Unlike the Earthquake (which was unpredictable), active weather was expected last night...but I'll be the first to admit that things were a little more active than anticipated.

Shortly after 8pm, Environemnt Canada started issuing watches and warnings for our area, the most serious of which were torando warnings for most of our viewing region including Peterborough (city and county), CKL, Northumberland, Fenelon Falls, Apsley and Woodview. Fortunately our region was spared from any tornadic activity but Midland Ontario, as I'm sure you've now heard, was not so lucky. The warnings were lifted around midnight as the line of storms continued to push east. At one point all of southern Ontario was under what is known as a "red alert." In the end parts of the city saw heavy showers, high winds and around 7,000 residents were left without power for a number of hours. In short...we were lucky.

One odd little statistic I'll leave you with is that only 0.5mm of rain was reported at Peterborough Municipal Airport for June 23rd. That's right, 0.5mm. 16.5mm fell later in the overnight but for Wednesday evening that's it. That will be the official rainfall total recorded by Environment Canada for June 23rd, 2010. Was that all that fell? No. I've heard reports that as much as 40mm of rain was recorded to the north (much of that falling before midnight) and many people across the city reported very heavy downpours that evening. Precipitation can be very isolated during thunderstorms. Just check out the video below shot durning yesterday's storm.

Shake, Rattle & Roll

2010-06-23T17:12:00.022-04:00

What a day! We have active weather moving into the region later this evening (see the blog below) after a moderate size earthquake shook the region this afternoon. At 1:42pm a 5.0 to 5.5 (different reports vary on the magnitude) occurred less than 60km north of Ottawa near Chelsea Quebec. This part of western Quebec is known for mild quake activity but a 5 plus magnitude quake is rare. How rare? The last time a quake this size occurred there was in October of 1990...just 50-60km from the epicenter of today's quake. So what caused it? Earthquakes are not really caused by anything other than stress. Thousands of years ago the Canadian Shield was pushed down by the weight of a massive glacier. That ice has obviously melted and the depression caused by it's weight is now "rebounding." The Earth is rising in this area. The problem is that, unlike squeezing a rubber ball, this rising motion is not fluid. It happens in steps or "slips." As the crust rises it becomes locked along faults as rocks tend to grab one another or bind up (they're jagged not smooth). Pressure builds until finally the rock breaks or moves and a slip occurs. This rapid "readjustment" results in surface waves as all of that energy is released. Where the slip occurs is know as the "hypocenter" and the point directly above the slip at the surface is the "epicenter" which is what you see on the map I've created above.

So we know where the quake occured but how far away was it felt? Earlier I spoke with John Bellini of the U.S.G.S and he told me about reports as far away as Sudbury and as far south as Washington. Wow! So why is this quake such a big deal? While no major damage has been reported this is a very rare event. Peterborough is not located along a tectonic plate boundary (like Los Angeles or Tokyo) so we're simply not used to the ground shaking. That's why a 10-20 second tremor managed to get everybody talking. Full details plus my quick interview with the U.S.G.S. will air tonight on Newswatch @ 6pm. To see a video explanation I gave to the Peterborough This Week newspaper as to why the quake happened click here. Hopefully this video helps answer the question why.

An active night ahead...

2010-06-23T13:24:00.004-04:00

Will tonight be a quiet night across the Kawarthas? Not likely. Some active weather is a probability tonight and there is the risk of severe weather. Let's take a look at the latest forecast model run below...

Now I've drawn in the fronts so that this image makes more sense. The first frontal passage will be early this evening as a warm front moves across the region. Rain and some mild (non-severe) activity is possible with this frontal passage but the potential for real active weather will be with the passage of the cold front late this evening. Between 10pm and 12am tonight that cold front looks to push in from the northwest and, after a very warm and humid day, that cold front could trigger some severe weather. Keep in mind that this is only a possibility as no watches or warnings have been issued at the time I write this blog...but there is a very good chance. Cloud heights to the west are in excess of 50 thousand feet which could mean hail and likely very heavy rain. Tornadoes are also possible although I think southwestern Ontario has a better chance of seeing a twister than here in Peterborough...but I'll keep you posted on CHEX and via Twitter if any warnings do pop up. Even though there is just a chance for severe weather it's best to be prepared and cover up the tender vegetation and secure loose patio furniture. Also bring the pets in tonight just in case. I'll have more details for you tonight on Newswatch at 6pm.

Gone tonight. Back tomorrow...the rain that is.

2010-06-22T16:46:00.009-04:00

After a sunny start to the day it ended up being a rather wet one. For much of the day the region saw a light but steady rain and, at times, a few moderate showers. Looking at the image above (from our Adonis forecast model here at CHEX) you can see that first system and the cold front that pushed through region already to the east of us by 8pm tonight. With lingering instability, showers are still possible to the west of that "low" but things will clear later tonight. Tomorrow we're likely to see a sunny start to the day but a second "low" (that you can see southwest of Lake Erie) moves in late day. Unlike today which (although humid) was relatively cool, tomorrow looks to be warm and muggy. With all of that potential heat and humidity thundershowers are possible tomorrow night once that second system moves in. Another cold front pushing through the region could be all the that is needed to see an active wrap to the day...so don't let a sunny start tomorrow morning catch you off guard.

One of the best things about having this blog is having the ability to get a little more in-depth with you while "talking weather." The blog wouldn't exist without readers so I want to thank all of you for checking out the weather blog and also to give a "shout out" to one particular reader (and CHEX viewer). Thomas, like myself, is a big "weather nerd" and his birthday wish was to be a Weather Watcher and his wish came true...

Thomas and his friends spent some time in the CHEX TV studios last night and even had the chance to try out the famous "green screen. As you can see, the kids had a great time. Very cool!

Afterwards we had the chance to talk about hurricanes, thunderstorms and all things weather. When it comes to weather let's just say Thomas has a bright future in broadcast meteorology. I'm always impressed with how much kids know about weather. Happy birthday Thomas and thanks for watching CHEX TV!

Sunday looks nice.

2010-06-18T16:40:00.011-04:00

After what can only be described as a perfect wrap to the work week today, the weekend looks to start on a wet note. The image to the left is from the latest GFS run and shows that cold front pushing right through the region tomorrow. You can also see a nasty little cell just to the west of the region which (according to this latest run) could push through the region late tomorrow afternoon or early in the evening. Our FutureCast here at CHEX shows a similar run with some active weather possible early in the afternoon and again around 7pm. You have to take these model predictions with a grain of salt but I think it's safe to say we will see some rain tomorrow and there is a good chance of some thunderstorm activity before clearing tomorrow night.

If your not happy with the forecast, feel free to pop on down to the MS Putt & Play event tomorrow at 10am at Milltown Family Fun Park on Lansdowne. You and the kids will have the chance to throw water balloons at your local weather guy (me) as Tyer and I will be hosting the event. It's all for a great cause. The weekend is not all bad as we look to be back to sunny weather to wrap up Sunday after some possible activity tomorrow. Hopefully you enjoy the weekend (rain or shine) and if you need some help putting a smile on your face just check out the video below. I had the chance to visit the kids at St. Mary's school in Grafton yesterday with our Weather Watchers program and as you can see below...these kids are just crazy about weather. Click here to nominate your son or daughter's class for next fall and teachers are more than welcome to nominate their class as well. I want to get out to as many schools as possible starting this fall.

Minor Flooding

2010-06-17T20:52:00.005-04:00

As promised here is that video of the minor flood situation on Monaghan Road yesterday in the city's south end. The key word here is "minor" but there was enough pooling to slow traffic at one point with water touching bumpers. This video was shot right in front of our studios and most of the water had drained off the road by the time we were able to get out there. (A big thanks to Shannon for grabbing these shots for me by the way as I was busy delivering the noon forecast...she braved the rain). About 5 minutes before this video was shot, the road was almost completely covered as was the southbound sidewalk. The water was knee deep at one point.

So just how much rain fell? All in all we saw just over 18mm of rain fall throughout the day but between 8-10mm fell in one heavy downpour between 11:20am and about noon. Now this is not a huge amount of rain in terms of volume but the rate at which it fell was too much for the city's infrastucture to handle here in the south end...a problem residents here are all to aware of. Thought you'd enjoy the video...expect more sunshine tomorrow.

Back to sunshine!

2010-06-16T15:00:00.006-04:00

We've seen a lot of change over the last 24 hours when it comes to the weather to say the least. Yesterday was sunny and 24 (near perfect if you ask me) and then today we saw showers and periods of heavy rain across the region. The heavy downpours today we're due to frontal passages with the heaviest rain occuring between 11am and 12pm as a cold front sliced through the Kawarthas. The rain was heavy enough to lead to some minor flooding in the city's south end as the storm drains could not handle the volume at the rate it was falling. I'll try to post some video of that on the blog later today. As for tomorrow...

We look to be back to sunny weather by tomorrow afternoon. The latest NAM run puts that "low" well to the east of us and shows a nice, stable area of high pressure centered just to the west by this time tomorrow. There is still a lot of instability just to the west of that "low" which could mean a few more showers in the morning but that would most likely occur while you're fast asleep. By the time most of us are heading out for work we'll see a mix of sun and cloud and clearing up nicely into the afternoon. Oh...and Friday look amazing by the way. Enjoy!

A grain of salt recommended...

2010-06-11T18:15:00.008-04:00

I may be opening myself up for a little future embarassment here...but I've decided to post my Newswatch 9-2-5 forecast for tomorrow up on the blog. It's a dangerous thing to do. Why is it dangerous? Well, any weathercaster or forecaster will tell you how hard it is to nail a daily forecast let alone an hourly breakdown of what's ahead. Every night on Newswatch I use the "9-2-5" as a tool to give you an idea of what tomorrow will be like throughout the day. Just because rain is expected tomorrow doesn't mean it wil rain the entire day and tomorrow is a good example. Here's how I see tomorrow playing out...

Now you'll have to take the above image with a grain of salt...and I also just noticed that the rain drops on my computer weather graphics don't appear too well when saved as a still image (sorry). I think we are likely to see some rain tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Our Futurecast here at CHEX shows a bit of clearing by 1pm until about 5pm where things may dry out a bit and a few sunny breaks are possible. By tomorrow night we could see a few more showers and there is the threat for some mild thunderstorm activity. So there you have it, an hourly breakdown for the busiest day of the International Dragon Boat Festival. I'll admit that I am still being very "optimistic" and not all of the computer models are in agreement but we did catch a break last weekend and I'm hoping for the same tomorrow. What you see above is my call and I'm sticking to it...let's just hope that Mother Nature cooperates. Have a great weekend!

Just Saying

2010-06-09T14:41:00.007-04:00

It's Wednesday which means, as Canadians, it's time to start thinking about the weekend and this weekend looks to be a busy one. With a bunch of events set to take place outdoors a lot of folks are really concerned about getting rained out. Oh...and one of these events is a big one. Paddlers from across the globe are descending on the electric city as Peterborough hosts the International Dragon Boat Festival. As for the weather...see below:

The forecast, at this point, is not looking great but there is hope. The image above is for very early Saturday morning (the overnight) and you can see a line of activity set to move through the region. So why is there hope? Let's step back in time to last weekend and the Peterborough Dragon Boat Festival where I called for rain and we ended up with a sunny afternoon. Yes, I blew that forecast (although I'm not alone) but we caught a break which is really a good thing. The active weather stayed to the south (Leamington) and the bulk of the rain fell to the north. Will that happen this weekend? It's still WAY too early to know for sure but I will say that the latest NAM image (above) is very similar to the "synoptic set-up" we saw going into last Saturday where we caught a break. You can cleary see this model show most of the rain to the north from that first are of low pressure riding high to the north and the cold fron looks to stay mainly to the south. Now we still saw rain last weekend but we also stole back a pretty decent afternoon from Mother Nature. While I'm not expecting a perfect weekend for the international races, if last weekend taught us anything...you never know. There is hope. Just saying.

What the heck is a downburst?

2010-06-07T23:09:00.008-04:00

Over the weekend the town of Leamington Ontario was hit by a powerful storm which damaged buildings, toppled trees and left over 4000 residents without power. Earlier today, Environment Canada confirmed that some of the damage was caused by an F1 tornado. Most of us are pretty familiar with the kind of damage a tornado can leave in its wake. We see it in newspapers, on the news and in the movies (I personally love "Twister" by the way). What downed many of the trees in Leamington however was not a tornado but something many folks are completely unfamiliar with...a downburst.

A tornado, due to its turbulent nature, leaves a chaotic mess behind as it spins through a city or town. Debris is picked up by the vortex and thrown around in a seemingly random pattern. A downburst is very different. From the gound, downbursts seem to push everything over in generally the same direction, which is why many of the trees in Leamington were toppled to the east. Imagine a sinking column of cold dense air hitting the ground as it falls from the sky above. Once it hits the ground this air rapidly spreads from its point of impact and flows outward as a powerful gust of wind. How powerful? Just ask the folks in Leamington...the amount of debris left by this recent downburst will take weeks to clean up and the damage even longer to repair.

Using a few craft supplies I put together a video to help explain just what a downburst is. I've embedded it below...enjoy!

Another reason to be concerned.

2010-06-04T09:31:00.011-04:00

I saw this Gulf oil forecast on CNN while channel surfing at the gym this morning durning my morning run. Much like a computer model can forecast the weather, the NOAA (they're like the U.S. version of Environment Canada) have released the results of a computer model and yellow dye simulation that forecasts where all of that oil in the Gulf will end up if it is picked up by the now famous "loop current." The model output is not promising.

This model projects that by late July and into early August that oil slick may impact much of the U.S. Atlantic Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras and dangerously close to Atlantic Canada. Now that yellow mass is still well to the south of our shores although it still has me concerned. Cape Hatteras is well known for strong storm development and tropical storms do occaisionally follow that Gulf Stream track and affect the maritimes. With an active hurricane season expected, this should be very concerning to Canadians.

Imagine the damage a powerful tropical storm or hurricane could inflict on our coast with a storm surge pushing that oil closer to our shores. Scary. Even your average summer storm parked in the right position could pull that oil into Canadian waters. Imagine a low pressure center sitting over Nova Scotia pulling in a strong, southerly wind. The results could be terrible.

So how accurate is this forecast model? Well...the ocean is a lot like our atmosphere. In fact, our atmosphere has been described as "an ocean of air." As someone who works with atmospheric computer models on a daily basis, I can tell you that a 14 or even a 7 day model is very often far from accurate. Let alone one that is predicting what will happen over a two month period so we should be far from panic mode. Either way, this model should be cause for concern and shows us that even here in Canada we are not immune to what has been described as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.

Another Great Camp Day!

2010-06-02T22:28:00.008-04:00

Once again...Camp Day was a blast! Early this morning I was invited out to Tim Horton's on Hunter Street in East City by my friend Kim. Through the Canadian Forces, Kim and I have had the chance to work during military training (we both work with local cadet corps) and now we had the chance to work at "Timmy's" together as well. That pic above is of the two 2nd Lieutenants working the drive-thru...I think we turned a few heads with the combat uniforms.

Here's a pic of the whole crew. A bunch of local "celebs" made it out for the cause including Mayor Paul Ayotte (center). Speaking of "celebs" the CHEX crew also took part. Later that day Jaye and I had a chance to serve up a few "double doubles" at the Monaghan Road Tim Horton's location while Tyler and Shannon managed to work the counter at the Lansdowne location. With over 3600 locations donating the proceeds from all coffee sales today, I think the Tim Horton's Children's Camps will be recieving some healthy funding after today. I'm just glad we could be a part of it and THANK YOU for supporting the cause. Check out the video below...

Bring the rain!

2010-06-01T14:50:00.009-04:00

Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy that sunshine today because it looks like more rain is on the way for tomorrow. MUCH needed rain that is. In the TV "weather biz" we tend to talk about rain as if it's a bad thing. As if it it is always about to happen at a bad time. Well, it may be "bad timing" for some but we so need the rain. For the month of May we've recieved only 2/3rd's of the rain we normally get after recieving approximately 60% less rainfall in April compared to the monthly average. You also have to account for the lack of snow we recieved this winter (thanks to El Niño) with one of the driest winters on record. Finally you can add to the mix an unseasonably warm stretch of weather to round out the month of May (breaking an all time high record dating back to 1880 on May 26th) which increases evaporation. Add all of these variables up and you get very dry conditions. VERY dry. Dry enough that Otonabee Conservation Authority is urging everyone to reduce water use by 10%.

Fortunately we recieved some much needed rain from about 1am - 7am this morning and (looking at the latest NAM run above) a healthy amount of rain can be expected starting as early as tomorrow afternoon and continuing through the overnight into Thursday. More rain can also be expected this weekend. Bad timing? Well...with Trent's convocation tomorrow and the Dragon Boat races (which I'm paddling in) set for Saturday, the timing may be bad for many but it's good for the region...especially area farmers. Oh, and as for the Trent U grads tomorrow...that rain could hold off until the evening so the class of 2010 may catch a break. Congrats to the graduating class and let's hope Ma' Nature cooperates for an outdoor ceremony.

Feelin' Hot Hot Hot!

2010-05-26T18:57:00.004-04:00

How about that heat? I think this daytime highs map of Ontario speaks for itself. Today was a scorcher. Records were shattered across the province today and heat alerts were issued in some of the bigger centers. So did we break a record in Peterborough? Just check out the image below...

Well...we didn't exactly smash the previous record out of the park but considering the year that old record was set, that's still pretty cool (or hot I guess). The record was still broken and keep in mind these records do not show what it actually felt like. With the humidity it felt closer to 40 than 30 today in Peterborough. So was this the hottest temperature recorded in May? No...far from it. That record still stands at 35 degrees set on May 30th in 1895. Let's hope we never break that one.

Don't Shoot The Messenger

2010-05-19T17:03:00.012-04:00

Well...the long weekend is almost upon us. The first long weekend of the season and, for many, the unofficial start of the summer. When it comes to the May long weekend the weather can be a touchy subject. Everybody wants Mother Nature to schedule the rain during the work week and the sunshine for the weekend. Well that ain't gonna happen...at least not this long weekend.

Now keep in mind that it is only Wednesday and, when it comes to weather, there is still plenty of time for a change...so take this with a grain of salt. Looking at the latest forecast models though (you can see the latest NAM run above) that low southwest of us looks to be right on our doorstep Friday which will likely mean showers for Saturday and even Sunday. So what is my predicition? Looking at the latest data I think we may still see a dry (and hopefully sunny) start to Saturday with showers arriving later in the day and wet weather through to Sunday morning. There's a good chance things will clear into Sunday afternoon and Monday looks very promising. That's looking at the current data and I do expect changes (hopefully for the better) over the next couple of days as more data comes in. I'll keep you updated here on the blog, on Twitter and on Newswatch. Oh and remember, I'm only involved in marketing...Mother Nature handles production.

Back to warm weather!

2010-05-14T18:04:00.006-04:00

First of all, let's break down today. As you can see from the daytime high map above we were back to seasonal today. Actually we were over one degree above the 30 year average of 19 degrees for this date. The reason? To be honest...it was sunnier than I predicted. I don't mind being a little off in the forecast when it results in more sunshine and a warmer daytime high. As for the weekend...see below.

Looking at the latest NAM run above things will be pretty nice by this time tomorrow night. We're likely to see more clouds than we'd like for much of tomorrow (after possibly a brief shower tonight) but sunshine can still be expected in the form of sunny breaks. Sunday is looking even better! That area of high pressure moves in tomorrow evening clearing things up for Sunday and Monday. Expect a mix of sun and cloud tomorrow (with a few cloudier periods) and sunshine with a high over 20 degrees for both Sunday and Monday. Now let's hope for a simialr set-up for the May long weekend. Enjoy!

Gone to the birds!

2010-05-12T15:59:00.007-04:00

I thought I'd share this with you. I really think this sums up the recent cold spell...even the birds can't believe it! I have to send a big thanks out to Tom and Linda Chambers for sharing this great photo. This photo should really be on a calendar or a birthday card or something. Now to the good news.

You see, it does pay to subscribe to this blog or follow me on Twitter. Well, it doesn't pay cash or anything but you do get to see the five day forecast before anyone else. Talk about benefits! Looking at the forecast a warm-up is on the way and, with the exception of a few clouds to start Saturday, the weekend is looking great. Enjoy! Oh...and as for the seven day forecast, you'll have to catch that tonight on Newswatch at 6pm on CHEX TV.

Looking way ahead...

2010-05-11T17:09:00.004-04:00

With this weekend's "return of winter" and the cool start to the work week, I figured we would focus on the future and the great weather that looks to be on our way (knock on wood) for the weekend. I will also take this opportunity to point out that I've been away with the military for the past week and a bit, and the blame for the recent cold spell can squarely be place on John Blake, who just happened to be filling in for me while I was away. Oh, and thanks for filling in John...sorry to pass the buck on this one.

So let's look ahead. After we deal with a few more days of cool and (at times) wet weather, the low pressure clears out and the weekend looks great. Keep in mind it is only Tuesday and things can change but, as the latest GFS run above shows, high pressure looks to dominate the region this weekend and we should return to seasonal values by Sunday with a high of around 20 degrees. Not bad! Yes there is light at the end of the tunnel. As for this week's rain, I agree that we need it...but let's try to schedule the rainy days during the work week.

Good news...and more good news.

2010-04-29T13:04:00.010-04:00

First of all...sorry for the lack of posts this week. As you may already know I am a meteorology student as well as a weather guy and I have been busy with final exams over the last few days. At 28 years old it feels weird to still be complaining about "finals" but, as of last night, at least I am done for another semester. Now back to the weather, after a few days of cool (below seasonal) weather a warm up is finally here. As today rolls on we'll start to see a big shift in wind direction and the tem will rise with warm southerly winds. The picture above is from the latest NAM forecast model run and I've added the fronts so it makes more sense. Ahead of that cold front we can expect a southwesterly flow of wind and temperatures into the twenties by tomorrow. So there's some good news for you. Here's more good news, that same system will finally bring us some much needed rain. I know that a rainy weekend forecast is not popular...but if we don't see rain during the spring (and it has been VERY dry) then summer will be very brown and the fire season could be very active.

Earth Day in the Arctic.

2010-04-22T16:40:00.024-04:00

First of all...Happy Earth Day! Seeing as how today is Earth Day I thought today would be a good time to share with you my interview with Trent University's Miles Ecclestone (That's him in the pic above). So what makes this interview so special? Well, Miles just happens to be calling from the Arctic. We'll hear from Miles from the base of the White Glacier 80 degrees north latitude on the remote Axel Heiberg Island. Very cool!

For over 50 years researchers originally from McGill and later Trent University have been visiting Canada's Arctic and studying the White Glacier. Over the years, researchers like Peter Adams and the team's current leaders (Graham Cogley and Miles Ecclestone) have measured the ice and tracked this glacier's seasonal changes. The pic above shows glacier's terminus. (Chris Omelon from University of Western Ontario can also be seen...I believe Miles is taking the picture).

This pic features two Trent students drilling into the snow and ice to place stakes that will help determine future snowfall accumulation. Unfortunately for these and future students...there is a lot less of the glacier to study. According to Miles, the last 5 or 6 years have been the warmest on record in the Arctic and the glacier is retreating. Over the last 50 years this glacier has retreated approximately 1km. If that doesn't sound all that bad to you, keep in mind that the rate of this melt is also increasing. This is why Trent University's research is so vital to understanding Canada's north. We'll feature my talk with Miles tonight on Newswatch Weather. Oh...and if you're interested on finding out more about the ice on Axel Heiberg Island, pick up a copy of Peter Adam's book titled "Trent, McGill and the North" available at Chapters.

UPDATE:

The video is now online! (Just click play).

Thank you NASA!!!

2010-04-19T16:30:00.010-04:00

With a lack of weather across our region today I thought I'd take this opportunity to share an amazing picture with you. I am loving NASA right now. With volcanic ash now pushing possibly as far west as Newfoundland (thanks to an area of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere), across the country everyone is talking about Eyjafjallajokull...although most are still struggling with this Icelandic volcano's name. As the world's eyes are on this volcano, NASA is giving everyone a bird's eye view.

The picture above, taken Saturday, is courtesy of NASA's EO-1 satellite. It is an infrared image looking directly down the vent of this volcano as it spews ash high into the atmosphere. The image I've posted is small so I've circled the vent where, according to NASA's website, enough power is being generated to meet the needs of 60,000 homes! Oh...and that is apparently only a small portion of the total power generated by this volcano's output. Although the situation may not be desirable for stranded travellers, images like this are are incredible to see. Hopefully this pic helps to shake off the monday blues...as if this great weather wasn't enough to do that already. Thank you NASA!

Eyjafjallajokull...try saying that 3 times fast!

2010-04-15T16:18:00.008-04:00

What a great shot. The folks at NASA are incredible for making pictures like this available on their website. This is a shot taken early this morning by NASA's Terra Satellite. What I've circled there is a the giant ash plume that has closed many of Europe's airports and left thousands stranded. What a great shot! Oh...and what a bad situation. So how does a volcano in Iceland affect air travel over 1500 km's away? Well let's look at the next slide I've put together.

That ash cloud has risen to over 55,000 feet in height. 55,000 feet! That happens to be where the Jet Stream is also located. The Jet Stream is a narrow ribbon of fast, upper level winds that circle the globe and divide the cold polar air to the north from the relatively warmer air to the south. These winds flow generally from west to east but tend to meander much like a river. The picture above shows the latest path of the "Jet" over Iceland and you can see just how far it is pushing that ash cloud south and east. This has brought ash as far east as continental Europe!

So why the cancellations? Well, if a plane were to fly into that ash cloud it may lose power. An ash plume is made up ash, glass and tiny bits of rock. The glass is capable of hurting a plane's electronics and the rocks can damage its turbines. Those tiny bits of rock can heat up and stick to the engine's components resulting in a loss of power. Not to mention a lack of visibility for the pilot and harmful gases could be pumped into the cabin. As for how long this problem may persist...this could be a frequent issue. The Eyjafjallajokull Volcano has been very active as of late and shows no signs of calming down. Iceland sits right over a divergent plate boundary where two tectonic plates are in a constant state of seperation allowing magma and volcanic gas to reach the surface. Every now and then, as pressure from below builds, this volcano literally "burps" spewing ash high into the atmosphere. Let's hope for those stranded passengers that this ash clears in the next day or so but another plume may not be far behind.

The Return of Winter?

2010-04-14T17:07:00.003-04:00

If you needed another reason to be happy about living here in the Kawarthas just look at that pic above. That’s a shot of my latest weather map and that powerful storm hammering the prairies. Calgary is now recovering from that system and is warming up from yesterday’s daytime high of around the freezing mark. After hammering Calgary the snow line moved just a little to the east and now Lethbridge is dealing with a major winter storm. To the west of that low pressure center are strong northerly winds (in excess of 90km) and heavy, wet snow. This deadly combination has resulted in both school and road closures and power out ages across the city of Lethbridge. Even as I write this blog blizzard and winter storm warnings are still in effect for many communities across the southern prairies and that same system is on its way here…sort of.

I’ve had a few calls today from concerned viewers asking me what we can expect as that system pushes east. Luckily we dodge a bullet. Looking at the pic above you can see that that ridge of high pressure over Ontario that is blocking this storm’s track. As that western trough in the jet stream is trying to “dig” east it is being slowed by that “blocking high.” When a low is stalled we start to see an occlusion form as the cold air literally “catches up” to the warm air in advance of the low. That funny pink front you see is called an “occluded front” and it’s like a zipper being done up between the cold and warm front. Cold air starts to surround the low at the surface forcing the warm aloft and this weakens the storm. In short, this means that by the time this system crosses north of our region it will be a much weaker storm. For Peterborough we can expect showers (starting as early as tomorrow afternoon) with rain late Friday into Saturday. Communities to the north (Haliburton and Bancroft) may experience some thunderstorm activity…but no snow. So let’s be happy with the rainy forecast to round out the week. The rain is much needed and I’ll take showers over 20cm of wet snow any day.

Ola!

2010-04-13T17:58:00.016-04:00

Ola! I'm back from sunny Cuba! I apologize for the lack of blog activity for the last week...but internet access is hard to come by in Cuba. Rum Punch, on the other hand, is not hard to come by. In the pic above is our group of intrepid viewers who made the treck to the Play Pasquero 5 Star Resort in Holguin Cuba...and check out the beach!

The picture actually does the beach no justice. That water looks even better in person. The beach was amazing and boasted an incredible coral reef (great for snorkeling) with a variety of fish and sea life. I actually saw a Barracuda just 20 feet from shore!

If salt water is not your thing the pool is apparently the largest in Cuba and this pic my wife Kate snapped shows less than half of it...awesome.

Here's another shot of the beach. Our CHEX TV group enjoyed a catered beach party with that amazing view and witnessed one of the most spectacular sunsets I have ever seen. Getting away from the beach was tough but I did manage to make a trip into a small Cuban village as well as a snorkeling trip on a huge catamaran. The sea life on that trip was unbelievable and as for the trip into town...let's just say the Cuban people are amazing. I think the biggest thing our group brought back to Canada was our impression of the people of this small Caribbean nation. Cuba is a poor country but the people are the among the happiest and the nicest I have ever met. This may have been my first trip to Cuba but it will not be my last and I have to send out a big thank you to Mary and the staff at Marlin Travel Peterborough for this amazing opportunity.

Great Weather For Good Friday!

2010-04-01T18:08:00.003-04:00

Well the long weekend is finally here and it looks to be a warm one. Very warm. All of the forecast models show the same thing and that is a big warm up for Ontario. As you can see from the image above most of the province, including the Kawarthas, will be sitting in the sweet spot between a Low to the west and a High to the east just pumping in warm, southerly winds. With the Jet Stream also riding high to the north the storm track looks to keep that Low out of our region as well. That system should stay north of the Kawarthas as it pushes east...although we could see a few showers by Monday. Add to the mix a lack of cloud cover and excessive daytime heating and you get a record breaking weekend. Tomorrow's all time high record is 16.1 degrees set back in 1946. I expect we'll smash that record tomorrow with a high of 24 or 25 degrees. Saturday's record stands at 21.3 set in 1981 and we're likely to break that as well with a high of 24. This may be the first year I cook Easter dinner on the BBQ...awesome! Enjoy the warm weather and have a great long weekend!

Heavenly Halo

2010-03-29T18:36:00.003-04:00

I want to thank Phillip Chee from the Peterborough Astronomical Association for sending in this pic! This is a great shot of a 22 degree lunar halo taken from Armour Hill on Saturday night. This is what the moon looks like through a thin veil of cirrus clouds on a cold night. The ice crystals high up in the atmosphere are what cause this phenomenon and it makes for a great picture! The P.A.A. was taking advantage of a little less light pollution during Earth Hour on Saturday night and nearly 100 folks who gathered on Armour Hill had a chance to enjoy sights like this. Phillip also used time-lapse photography to put together a nice movie file of the moon moving across the sky. Click here to check it out. Thanks Phillip!

It's Not All Bad

2010-03-26T18:06:00.004-04:00

With all of the recent talk about the cold weather I thought I'd throw this up on the blog. You should always take the 7 Day Forecast with "a grain of salt" as the accuracy of the forecast models drops big time after the first 3-5 days. While I can't promise it will still look this good by Monday's weathercast, temperatures do look to improve by the start of next week. So after a cool weekend things look to be on the up...temperature-wise that is. Have a great weekend!

Bundle Up!

2010-03-25T18:02:00.006-04:00

Well a big chill is on the way tonight and tomorrow's weather will be very different than the mild weather we've seen over the last few days. In short...It's going to be cold. Very cold. Looking at the national map above we can see exactly where this polar air mass is originating from (the blues and purples) and it's on our doorstep.

Looking at today's daytime highs map you can see the mean position of the approaching cold front earlier today. Ahead of that front our region was under the inluence of calm, southwesterly winds and we fell just short of a double digit high. Looking north toward Sudbury and Timmins you can see much cooler daytime highs between 2 and 5 degrees as that cold front pushed through the north late this morning when those high temperatures were recorded. Timmins high may have been plus two (around seasonal) but it was below freezing into the afternoon. Our high of 9 occured at noon today but by 3pm we were already closer to 5 degrees...and that temperature will continue to drop.

Looking at our CHEX TV Future Look Model that cold front will be southeast of us by 8pm tonight and that cold, polar air will continue to push into the region unobstructed over the next 12 hours. By 6am it will likely be minus 14 in Peterborough (feeling like minus 20) and minus 17 to the north (feeling like minus 24). Tomorrow we can expect a high of plus one and it will remain slightly below seasonal through the weekend. Don't worry about the cold too much though as the long range models show a warm-up early next week. We'll be back to double digits by Tuesday.

Bye Bye Winter!

2010-03-19T14:56:00.010-04:00

It looks like the winter of 2009/2010 really will go down in history as "the winter that never was." That is unless we get a massive snow storm in the next 24 hours. Anything is possible, but I seriously doubt we'll see any measurable snow by 1:32pm tomorrow when we officially enter spring. Maybe some light rain tonight to the north but snow would be a long shot. So why has this winter been so mild and dry? Well, you can thank El Nino for that...but there is a chance for some precipitation to kick of spring.

Looking at the latest GFS run there is the chance for some late day rain tomorrow as that frontal boundary (between a departing Alberta Clipper and an arriving Colorado Low) skims by the region. Don't expect a washout but a few showers are possible tomorrow and again on Sunday.

But it's not all bad. Earlier this week that Colorado low was looking to track right through the region for Sunday and Monday but the latest NAM run shows the majority of the rain should fall south of us. The second pic is a snapshot of the latest NAM run for Monday and, as you can see, most of that rain is forecast to occur stateside of the Great Lakes. Even though the bulk of that system looks to miss us, there is still a strong possibility of a few showers (and maybe wet snow during the overnight hours) to kick off the first full week of spring. But hey...it wouldn't be spring without rain.

1000 Acts of Green

2010-03-18T14:49:00.013-04:00

Yesterday I had the chance to spend some time with the good folks at Peterborough Green-Up and learn about a great promotion they’re running for the month of March. Green-Up, the City of Peterborough and the Ontario Ministry of the Environment are teaming up to promote Zero Footprint. This is an initiative urging everyone to reduce emissions and downsize their carbon footprint. To raise awareness for this initiative they’re holding a contest and giving away some great prizes. The contest is called “1000 Acts of Green” and all you have to do is email the Green-Up team and tell them about your act of green and you’re in the contest. It’s easy and it’s free! Prizes include:

· An I-Pod
· $50 Galaxy Cinemas gift certificate
· $100 gift certificate to the Shish Kabob Hut
· $100 gift certificate to Rare Grill House
· $75 gift certificate to the Peterborough Green-Up store

Also, as a special for Newswatch viewers, if you enter within the next 24 hours you could also win a $50 gift certificate to Green Eyewear. Click here for details on Zero Footprint and be sure to tell Peterborough Green-Up what you plan to do this year to help the environment by sending in your pledge to countdown@greenup.on.ca and good luck! Oh…and if they reach 1000 acts, Donald and Thalia (from the Green-Up team) will plunge into the chilly waters of the Otonabee at the end of the month. So there’s a little extra motivation for you.

New Record High!

2010-03-16T16:32:00.009-04:00

The above pic is a shot of the daytime highs map of Ontario as of 4:30pm this afternoon. Yes that is 16 degrees for us folks living here in Peterborough. 16 degrees! (Well 15.9 but my computer rounds up to the next closest number). Our seasonal average is around 4 degrees and we can thank, in part, a lack of cloud cover for today's high with uninterupted sunshine literally cooking the Kawarthas. So now we have a little paper work to do...

There you have it! A new record of 15.9 degrees (as of 4:33pm...it still could get warmer) for Peterborough! It always feels good to make a little history and with a projected high of 16 tomorrow we may come close to doing it again. Tomorrow's all time high record is 17.8 degrees set back in 1927. I don't expect to beat that record but it is a possibility. Either way...have a great St. Patrick's Day. Mother Nature looks to deliver up some great patio weather!

Here comes the rain.

2010-03-10T18:26:00.006-05:00

Unfortunately this week looks to wrap up a lot differently than it started. That nasty looking system in the picture above will push into the region starting tomorrow night and dump a lot of moisture on the region for Friday and Saturday. How much rain? Well we 10-15mm is possible Friday with another 5-10mm on Saturday before tapering off to showers on Sunday. (Although another 5mm is still possible on Sunday). With a lack of precipitation over the last two months we do need the rain but those planning on attending this Sunday's St. Patrick's Day parade (2pm-George St.) this is not welcome news. Be sure to pack your green umbrella and hope for the "luck of the Irish."

Paper Boys

2010-03-04T16:26:00.016-05:00

As you can see by the pictures above (courtesy of Lance Anderson) that was a close call! While settling that Polar Plunge bet (by delivering papers) with Lois Tuffin from Peterborough This Week, Tyler and I decided to have a little fun with that trailer...and almost landed a role in the next "Jackass" movie. Check out the video!

Hopefully the video gives you a few laughs but I wanted to thank Lois on the blog today for challenging Tyler and I with this year's Polar Plunge. Even though Lois ended up beating our fundraising total (by less than $100) we ended up raising just shy of $2,000 for BEL Rotary, the MS Society and St. John Ambulance. Not bad at all. Thanks again to all of our sponsors and hopefully we'll do this again next year...although next time it would be nice to win the bet!

Count The H's

2010-03-04T15:15:00.007-05:00

That's a lot of high pressure centers! I can count 5 on this latest NAM image. So what does this mean? Well think of this as one broad area of high pressure with a central pressure of 1028mb or 102.8 kPa. This airmass is very stable and looks to dominate our weather for the weekend. Expect warm and sunny days (possible double digit highs for Saturday and Sunday) but clear and cold nights (with little cloud cover to trap in that heat after sunset). The weekend is not looking bad at all...enjoy!

When Dog's Attack

2010-02-26T14:34:00.003-05:00

After a day that saw 10-15cm's of snow, bus cancellations, traffic accidents and mucky sidewalks...I thought I'd try to put a smile on your face. Or at least make you giggle. On days like today everyone wants to "stick it to the weatherman." Well last week Cst. Mason and his police dog Knight got the chance. Enjoy!

Hopefully that got you laughing. As for the weather we can expect some wet snow tonight, maybe a few flurries to start the day tomorrow changing to mixed precipitation in the afternoon (Not steady but in the form of flurries or showers), and hopefully a few sunny breaks for Sunday.

Have a great weekend!

Snow Machine

2010-02-24T12:45:00.015-05:00

What you're seeing in the picture above is Mother Nature's snow making machine for the east coast. This is an image I grabbed from the latest NAM forecast model showing tomorrow and that is a pwerful Nor' Easter. A "Nor' Easter," as its name implies, is a storm that travels to the northeast. These storms can bring vicious wind, powerful waves and, more importantly, lots of snow to the northeasrtern U.S. and as far inland as the Great Lakes region. When these storms sit in the "sweet spot" they can be very efficient snow-makers. The sweet spot is just offshore, right on the border between the relatively warm Atlantic and the cold surface of the continental U.S. As the Low spins in this "sweet spot" it mixes these two very different air masses resulting in a powerful winter storm.

This storm will hammer the northeastern U.S. bringing power outages, travel delays and a ton of snow! So what does this mean for us? Well, we could see a fair amount of snow over the next 24-36 hours. Snowfall totals are very tough to predict but as warm air wraps around the storm and mixes with the cool air already in place in our region the result is accumulation. Although the bulk of this snow will stay well to the east, this "wrap-around" snow could result in 2-5cm tonight with an additional 5-10cm tomorrow and the potential for a few more flakes into Friday (before changing back to rain). In short, 10-15cm's is possible over the next day or so and there is the possibility for higher totals depending on temperature and the track of this powerful Nor' Easter. Oh...and it will be windy.

How much? Not Much...

2010-02-19T18:15:00.005-05:00

With over half of February behind us (and not a lot of snow on the ground) I thought it would be great to take a look at how much snow has actually fallen so far in 2010…or should I say how little? Well it hasn’t been all that much. Here are the numbers:

· January - 34mm of precipitation.
· February - 3.5mm of precipitation (so far).

Let’s start with January as that total is a little deceiving. 34mm sounds like a healthy amount of precipitation but most of it did not fall as snow. 12mm of mostly rain fell on January 24th where Peterborough saw a high of 4.8 degrees and 17mm fell the following day almost entirely as rain with a high of 6.6 degrees and a low of just above the freezing mark. Even though all of February’s precipitation has fallen as snow there just hasn’t been that much. (Just 3.5cm over 19 days). Our next best bet for snow will likely be early next week but with daytime temperatures expected to exceed the freezing mark, some of that precipitation may fall as a rain and wet snow mix.

Snow for the weekend?

2010-02-18T13:10:00.004-05:00

After a few flurries to start the week I thought we should talk about the weekend and what looks to be in store. That 1-2cm that fell yesterday really had folks talking. Winter enthusiasts were dissapointed with how little snow fell and snow haters were...well, they were hating even that small amount. Personally, I was dissapointed with the lack of snow and, after calling for 1-3cm the night before, was actually hoping to get it wrong and wake up to a winter wonderland. Sadly that was not the case. So will we see more snow this week? Likely a few isolated flurries...but not amounting to all that much. As for the weekend, looking at the latest NAM run (pictured above) the big snow will stay well to the east and, for the most part, we'll be under the influence of high pressure. Now there is a small chance for an isolated flurry or two on Saturday as a weak trough (which I've illustrated above) and a northwesterly flow of wind may lead to a few flurries. Most of that lake enhanced precipitation will likely be isolated to the southern shores of the big lakes though so don't expect much (if any) snow this weekend, just cloudier conditions for Saturday. Snow haters will be happy...although for you snow lovers there is a chance for some flakes if we see a more westerly component to the wind than expected so cross your fingers.

No Snow?

2010-02-10T16:53:00.008-05:00

Yesterday I was talking about the possibility of a few cm's of snow for today. I was hoping that we would see a few flurries through the overnight and this morning...and it never happened. Why no snow? Well the question isn't why but where. Where is the snow? There was snow across the region today, just no more than a trace amount in Peterborough. Looking at the King City Radar this morning, bands of snow greeted folks in Haliburton, Bancroft and many communities to the north. Most of the snow occured south of the city though. Oshawa dealt with a few flurries, Toronto dealt with messy roads and further south (into southwestern Ontario) between 20-25cm fell.

Where the worst weather took place (and continues to take place) is in the northeastern U.S. along the Atlantic Coast. This powerful low continues to bring punishing winds and heavy snowfall to major cities like Washington, New York and Philadelphia. Highway pile-ups are occuring, flights are cancelled and some of the world's busiest airports are literally shut down. So did we catch a break? Certainly, but a few cm's would have been nice. The next best chance for flurries will be on Sunday. I'll have all of the details tonight on CHEX Newswatch.

Freezin' For A Reason!

2010-02-08T16:55:00.021-05:00

First of all, I have to thank Stu from Stick Shots Photograpghy for these great pics. Awesome shots! These pics are from the BEL Rotary Polar Plunge that took place on Sunday on Chemong lake and yes, Tyler and I plunged as a 2 man bobsled team.
I also have to thank my wife Kate for helping to make that awesome sled! Sure, it was made of cardboard but the engineering that went into that sled was intense. Not to mention the two rolls of duct tape!

The water was COLD but the hot tub felt great and the donations from all of our supporters was, as Tyler would say, outstanding. While I can't thank every individual donator on this blog (there are too many) here are a few of the standout donations...

Boston Pizza - $50

Peterborough Senior Lakers - $120

Peterborough Junior Lakers - $100

Kawartha Chrysler Jeep Dodge - $100

Byden Acres - $100

Jeanette Jennings - $100

Tim Horton's Monaghan - $400

Cottage Country Sunrooms - $250

Ultimate Home Improvements Plus - $100

Liftlock Stars - $200

A big thanks goes out to those already mentioned above and to everyone that made a contribution to BEL Rotary, St John Ambulance and the MS Society. I have a feeling that as the money gets counted we may have fallen short of Lois' total of just over $2, 000 but we came very, very close. I'll have the total for you tomorrow on Newswatch. Oh, and if Lois did indeed beat us in our friendly wager...CONGRATS! Without our little bet Tyler and I certainly would not have raised this much cash and we'll be happy to have her as our boss for a day as we deliver papers for Peterborough This Week. At least we won for best costume.

Thanks again!

Dodging a bullet!

2010-02-04T14:56:00.008-05:00

Normally I’d be a little concerned about a big, warm, moist storm pushing into an area of cold air on our doorstep…but we look to catch a break. A big winter storm has formed over Texas and is heading northeast. The picture above is from the latest North American model and shows just how close that storm will be on Saturday. With the position of that High just off the east coast I’d normally expect some of that moisture to be pushed north into Ontario but that High to the northwest gives us a break.

As you can see from this second pic, that High to the north will keep that nasty storm to the south and it’s a good thing to because this storm will be a big snow maker. If you’re planning on flying through the northeastern U.S. expect delays as folks there will be digging out. Luckily, we’ll be sitting pretty under a big, cold, stable air mass and Sunday is looking great for PolarFest. Whew...that was close.

Guess who's back?

2010-01-27T18:05:00.009-05:00

If you guessed "Old Man Winter" you're right! Don't get excited...there's no prize. Winter is set to return and if you need proof just look to the west. As I write this at 6pm, it is currently -17 in Sakatoon, a chilly -20 in Regina and -20 in Winnipeg (although in Winnipeg it feels like -33 with the wind chill). That mass of cold air over the prairies is pushing in from the northwest. As we see an area of low pressure depart that northwesterly flow of wind will put us in the deep freezer here in the Kawarthas. Expect a high of only -7 tomorrow and a low below -20. Tomorrow night will feel below -30 with the wind and Friday and Saturday look to be just as cold (or colder). On the bright side...expect the canal to be open to skaters soon.

United Way Hockey Challenge

2010-01-22T16:42:00.003-05:00

Tomorrow is a big day...I'm actually a bit nervous. If you're looking for a great way to spend a Saturday afternoon just head down to the Memorial Centre. The Level A United Way Hockey Challenge gets under way at 1pm as the the Conservatives take on the United Way All-Stars. This year I'll be emceeing the event alongside KRUZ FM's Gord Gibb and you can expect a few changes to really jazz up the event. The second period has been replaced by a skills competition, there will also be a shoot out contest where one lucky individual could score their hockey team $10,000 and the Olympic Torch will also be on hand. So come check out the game, meet som former NHL'ers and raise some funds for the United Way! Tickets are between $5 and $8 and all of that money stays right here in Peterborough. Click here for more information.

In The Clear

2010-01-19T17:05:00.008-05:00

It's not that there will be a lack of weather over the next few days...just a lack of weather over much of Ontario. After a few flurries tonight and a chance for a few more tomorrow morning an area of high pressure pushes in and looks to be with us for the long haul. That big blue "H" you see in the pic above is an area of subsiding air that will keep things nice and sunny over the next few days. We'll see our first hint of sunshine tomorrow afternoon and, if this model holds true, this high should keep all of that precipitation you see in the pic well to the south...at least until Sunday. Expect warm, sunny days and clear cool nights to round out the week.